It is indeed extraordinary how crooked poor, doomed O’Shannessy is getting. Polling 213 voters, a negligible sample, in each of five seats (Dobell, Robertson, Kingsford Smith, Page and Eden-Monaro), on landlines, which nobody much uses, and not asking, but imagining, what their preferences are, and using a methodology I am told by a Newspoll employee gets nobody under 65, he manages — just — to get a 53-47 vote for the Liberals. One of the seats is the litmus one, Eden-Monaro, but he does not, dare not, say what the vote is there.
In Parramatta, Reid, Banks, Lindsay and Greenway, ringing only 173 voters, he does rather better. There it is 57-43, but, for some reason, it is taken over five days, the first such poll in world history.
In La Trobe, Deakin and Coorangamite, ringing 241 in each, on Cheap Movie, Late Shopping and Debate Night, he gets, from his usual octogenarians, 53-47.
In most of them, very few were rung after the Debate. In all of them, some were rung during the Debate. This meant people not interested in seeing Rudd were emphasised.
Why was a different methodology used in each of them? Eight days, five days, two days? Could it be to do with ‘tweaking’? Heaven forbid.
To me these figures show Labor seriously ahead on Thursday. But these headlines, of course, and the Revolt of the Humphreys, may alter that. It is the Bandwaggon Effect versus the Underdog Effect. Morgan suggests the former, Essential the latter. Essential is still 50-50.
It is wonderful to see O’Shannessy tying himself in knots. In Reid, where the Liberal candidate proves to be in the pay of Roger Rogerson, there is a swing to, not from, the Liberals of 9 percent. I’ll bet there is,
There is also, even among octogenarians, 4 percent ‘uncommitted’ and 1 percent ‘refused’. This, across Australia, is three quarters of a million people, still to make up their minds, on Saturday, after Abbott puts out, at last, his figures on Friday at 5 pm.
I may be wrong, because advertising works, and this is advertising, but I stand by my prediction of 56.8 pecent two party preferred to Labor, five seats to Katter and Palmer, MacGowan to win Indi, Bandt Melbourne, Wilkie Denison, Labor to pick up Brisbane, Forde, Longman, Dobell, Bennelong and Macquarie, lose Robertson and Coorangamite, pick up Hasluck and Solomon, and win handily a couple of others while losing two in Tasmania.
I can be wrong, but I have been right within three seats thirty-five times, and it looks, with caveats, okay from here.
Name:
If it takes these kind of tricks and shenanigans to get Abbott into the Lodge, how unfit must he actually be. And if he gets there, how much will he owe Murdoch?
Dali, I don’t know what your octopus thinks of this;
Yesterday we walked past the early voting place, Angry Anderson and others busily erecting their posters; Jack Russell (Milo) ignored the pretty blond Larissa, the angry Anderson and walked straight to the Labor member for Throsby: Stephen Jones
Yet another crooked poll.
The intent is to make it appear that Abbott has momentum, and to demoralise the ALP.
It has been a dripping tap wearing away at Labor since late 2009.
“It has been a dripping tap wearing away at Labor since late 2009″.
Yes, something has and it is also a woodchipper and a steamroller and a grinder, all rolled into one: Abbott.
The only (momentary) qualification is that without the political nihilist Rudd (believing in nothing) sabotaging the 2010 campaign and resulting in the hung parliament, Abbott might have taken seven or eight months to really grind her down like he did Rudd1.
I can’t remember ONE time where he bested her in Parliament time.
Not one.
Can you?
Put up the link and let’s have a look.
I rate her tougher AND better than even Hawke.
“Grind her down” - you got to be fucking kidding me?!?!
“a woodchipper and a steamroller and a grinder, all rolled into one: Abbott”
His talent lies all in destruction? Like a dalek? “His nature is to devour” like the Qlippothic entities….He is in short what in normal language we would call evil?
Not of course that us sophisticated people believe in the simplistic Good/Evil dualism, it is all relative and a matter of viewpoint, humans are evil from the point of view of the lamb etc etc…
But what you are saying is that for ordianry practical purposes Abbott is what we call evil?
Just checking. Maybe quite a few people are smart enough, given time, to realise that?
Well said Jeremy.
Its all the choice of words isn’t it? They define and describe, prescribe and construct.
It is extremely instructive that this blogs most regular Liberal cheerleader should have chosen words of such a negative, martial and abrogating nature with which to describe his Leaders impact over the past few years.
It seems that the language of construction, efficacy, regeneration, growth, hope, authenticity, assurance, aspiration, optimism, promise,trust, nourishment, propitious, encouragement, opportunity, dynamism, enthusiastic, vibrant, vigourous, and prosperity have all escaped his Rhodes Scholar vocabulary.
You may win this election Ryutin, but no subsequent language can cancel your corrosive propaganda.
Cow pie alert
Land mine ahead
Tread carefully
Fresh Troll scat litters the trail below this
Bob, you are a sad, pathetic and most of all desperate man, and I will happily return to this blog on September 8 and point out how very wrong you were.
Unless I’m banned. Which, since I am not one of your fawning apologists, is very likely. Still, you and I will both know, and that’s enough.
We will see Gecho, and it will be very interesting to see in this anomalous and history-making election who was right and why…
I don’t usually comment on these Ellis v Liberals things but it is I think a misunderstanding to think that Bob only tolerates “fawning apologists”; to put it at its clearest there are clear rightwingers who have been here for ages. Ellis has banned people of right, left and (so far as I can see) centre who he didn’t find constructive members of his blog for one reason or another. Some of those reasons I have thought good, some bad, some I haven’t quite got. But so far as I can see political orientation has never in itself been one of those reasons.
Having said that this is a personal blog with the agenda firmly controlled by the blog owner who is an idiosyncratic social-democrat deeply if critically committed to the ALP. One may well enjoy the blog while not sharing his political views; I for example enjoy the blog while having substantial political differences; but if one finds those views hateful contemptible or ridiculous, signs of being “sad pathetic and…desperate” in your words, you are unlikely to enjoy the blog much….you’d have to be a pretty keen admirer of Ellis’ writing style to want to stay.
Its a big world out there, a big blogosphere even.
Bob is not a social democrat. To be a social democrat you have to be a democrat and Bob is calling for the election result to be overturned if his side does not win.
There is absolutely nothing democratic about that.
Comprehension is a problem for conservatives, as usual. Just where does Bob call for an election result to be overturned?
Are you a member of the CRLP?
We will see Gecho, and it will be very interesting to see in this anomalous and history-making election who was right and why…
I don’t usually comment on these Ellis v Liberals things but it is I think a misunderstanding to think that Bob only tolerates “fawning apologists”; to put it at its clearest there are clear rightwingers who have been here for ages. Ellis has banned people of right, left and (so far as I can see) centre who he didn’t find constructive members of his blog for one reason or another. Some of those reasons I have thought good, some bad, some I haven’t quite got. But so far as I can see political orientation has never in itself been one of those reasons.
Having said that this is a personal blog with the agenda firmly controlled by the blog owner who is an idiosyncratic social-democrat deeply if critically committed to the ALP. One may well enjoy the blog while not sharing his political views; I for example enjoy the blog while having substantial political differences; but if one finds those views hateful contemptible or ridiculous, signs of being “sad pathetic and…desperate” in your words, you are unlikely to enjoy the blog much….you’d have to be a pretty keen admirer of Ellis’ writing style to want to stay.
Its a big world out there, a big blogosphere even.
Well said JD.
If I may, i would like to add this - those antagonists to whom you address your generous therapeutic advice look to me to be saboteurs intent upon doing maximum damage to the talkers but that doesn’t mean they cannot be turned by the sort of wisdom you display above.
“I can be wrong, but I have been right within three seats thirty-five times, and it looks, with caveats, okay from here.”
Fact Check or Intelligent Bluster?
“Fact Check or Intelligent Bluster”
Please answer your question with some facts
“It has been a dripping tap wearing away at Labor since late 2009.”
The “perfect storm” created by Murdoch Minions, RineFax Tories and ABCopycatters has whipped up this drip into a Faux-news Tsunami.
PMKR with many good ministers like Penny Wong and Tony Burke have done a Homeric job to keep the ALP in with a real chance of winning govt. and to obviate the possibility (a few months ago) of a NSW/QLD state election genre of 60%+ catastrophe.
PappaH - “an Homeric job“? He churned out verbose verse about a tragedy?
Did you mean ‘TROJAN’ work - worked hard, sweated like a T?
No mature person would ever bother posting on your opponents’ blogs.
Hemingway 13, why indeed, be banned, and yet keep coming back, maybe it is their need to unhinge, harass and humiliate the opponent. Maybe they are banned from every blog, and they are doing their nasty rounds, obviously strangely enjoying it..
Helvi, I always thought that you did, perhaps, live in a gentle, more sheltered world, even a bit like in a cocoon, where the true nastiness of the internet was kept out of that particular world.
Right this minute it seems even an endearing quality to me - and the wish that you never be disillusioned by the doors being opened to you about the filth that internet cowardice has created.
The bad language should be put to one side because if shows more about self-loathing, immaturity and lack of imagination with the English language than malice.
But on nastiness, suffice it to say this: opponents of the blog narrative are absolutely genteel and mild compared to the unhinged freaks I spoke of earlier and, in fact, on any real (and fearless) blog where you could say “political debate is encouraged” yet still keep a straight face and fingers uncrossed, these
opponents” ARE mild.
Ryutin, I have no probs with the in-house Liberals: you and Frank.
Yesterday’s ugliness by some of the semi-permanent trolls made me seriously think about the value of coming here.
I have listed some Liberals as my friends in real life; they behave better than these trolls here…
Where you are wrong is here -
Wilfully ignoring the fact that ordinary “folk”, young ones included, understand that massive accumulated debt (Brent said “what’s $10 billion in the scheme things”) is a bad thing. You’re wrong to keep saying young people don’t care about debt and will naturally vote Labor. But we’ll see.
It is not that there is $10bn or $100bn more or less in the deficit. What matters is that they have had months to get their costings right and that they are still wrong.
What errors are there in the other 190 policies they won’t release, and what is still locked away in the vault?
You may depend they have released the more palatable stuff first. What is still hidden?
Doug,
The point of the press releases from the heads of Treasury, Finance and the PBO was not that either costings were “right” or “wrong”.
The ALP, in April asked them to do some costings of various matters and based on a set of assumptions.
The ALP took a punt that this would be the same as what the LNP would actually do.
It turns out that they were wrong.
Thus, the Dept Heads simply pointed out that the ALP, is asserting the Depts had costed LNP policies, was not correct and to say so was inappropriate.
Judgement about the efficacy of the costings, by both the ALP and the LNP, can be made by people but it is simply not correct to say that Tax, Finance and the PBO have found them to be wrong.
Nick Labor has applied the known parameters against the known promises. The figures are correct until the parameters are updated. That is all the bowfins said and yet the muppets in the media have all gone ape droppings.
How thick and mendacious
“I don’t agree with you. Therefore i will ignore the primary issue (the veiled rebuke by the APS heads to the Govt) and i will accuse you of being unintelligent and dishonest.”
Par for the course….
John….
I may have misread the message in your post. If so, I apologise.
Thick maybe…..not mendacious.
The point was to cover their arses in case Abbott gets elected.
Christine - “young folk’ wouldn’t know their arse from their elbow re gross/net debt, or anything else of significance to the(ir) future.
To them, the future was 10 minutes ago.
I so hope you are right Bob. In my electorate which is marginal the LNP candidate’s face is plasted so pervasively it is sickening. His minions have stood outside cafe’s virtually accosting you as you leave.
I am extremely fearful yet your predictions allow me to hang on to hope that I will not be ashamed of my Australianity next Sunday.