Old friend, the CEOs of Nielsen and Newspoll are refusing to say what the average age of their respondents is.
I suspect it is 69 or 72. If this is so it puts all their numbers way out and means Labor, probably, is on 49 or 50 two party preferred.
In America the landline method was way out and predicted a Romney win all year.
It is likely five million Australian voters do not have, or do not use, landlines. How then can any method that polls only two thirds of the people have any validity?
If you can ask O’Shannessy or Stirton what that age is, I would appreciate it.
Name:
Totally correct Bob on this. They have no credibility.
We’re waiting Barrie…..or are you just a mouth piece for Murdoch and the miners!
Barrie Cassidy a mouth piece for Murdoch and the miners? You must be thinking of another Barrie!
Landlines in the States was one of four noted problems, and only affected a single polling agency. It was a combination of all four that led them 5% off.
Seeing as NO Australia polling agency has used the one that contributed to the US error, banging on about this element while ignoring the other three, seems ridiculous.
BrisBoy at it again
the situation in the US and Australia is not the same in detail, and we don’t really know what the facts are here (or there, in fact, but in the US they had a lot more polling, which levels things out)
but it is clear that there is some problem; the mobile-only segment is growing VERY fast, the people in that segment are NOT a fair sample of Australian voters, they are skewed towards the Labor end
therefore there is quite likely, to put it very conservatiely, a bias against Labor in current polling
Wrong (again), John. The polling agency affected investigated the issue and notes very firmly where they went wrong.
Other agencies did not have the same problems with their assessments to that extent, working within the accepted margin of error.
So for all the ‘won’t somebody think of the savvy, mobile crowd’, it didn’t make a difference to the outcomes between polling, and election results.
Just to make your statement of bias seem more ridiculous is that in the case of the WA, NSW and QLD state elections, Labor has enjoyed both an increase AND decrease in support between poll and result.
You simply can’t handle the notion that the polls conducted in Australia, and despite the hysterics here, align very closely to the final outcomes.
— 2PP —
2010 - National
Morgan Poll - ALP 51.5 / LNP 49.9
Result - ALP 50.1 / LNP 49.9
2010 - SA
Newspoll - ALP 48 / LNP 52
Result - ALP 48.4 / LNP 51.6
2011 - NSW
Newspoll - ALP 35.9 / LNP 64.1
Result - ALP 35.8 / LNP 64.2
2012 - QLD
Newspoll - ALP 39.2 / LNP 60.8
Result ALP 37.2 / LNP 62.8
2013 - WA
Newspoll - ALP 40.5 / LNP 59.5
Result - ALP 42.7 / LNP 57.3
————-
All results fell into the margin of error with only the WA result showing a distinct swing to benefit the ALP, on the back of a very well managed and UNIFIED WA ALP campaign.
“You simply can’t handle the notion that the polls conducted in Australia, and despite the hysterics here, align very closely to the final outcomes.”
Why do you worry about what anyone can handle? If you are winning, be happy, for once.
I thought you wee banned? Are you banned from every other blog? If not, what are you doing here?
Go and be hysterical somewhere else.
Please no replies, BL.
I’m not worried about what you think. I just provide the facts against the various fallacies, and let the likes of you and John get antsy.
Your inability to concentrate on the content (again) in your response, is no surprise.
And no, never been banned. I have a life outside the ‘net and disappear from time to time. Sorry to disappoint.
I lose track; you are banned, then you come back using a different name… It’s your negativity and aggression that gives you away, no matter what name you use. But you know that…
Was never banned. It’s the same name as my last foray. I think you truly are losing it.
‘Negativity’ and ‘Aggression’? You are a sensitive soul, aren’t you. They’re traits in abundance on the ‘net and throughout forums.
If you’ve got a gripe with this other person, then I think I like them already!!!
Still not willing to address the FACTS provided?
Instead of worrying about conspiracies on current numbers, just hope the ALP can get it to 48-52 in the week leading into the Election, for them to have any chance.
were banned. are lying rightist
Nope. I know that burns you, but…meh.
And just so you and Helvi aren’t confused, I’ll be disappearing for a another week or so. Having a life doesn’t mean ‘banned’.
BrisBoy, boy liar
All be warned, BrisBoy is a malicious troll and no friend of the left, as in this present instance is easy to show
The polls in the US had major problems; ask the HUGELY-resourced GOP pollsters and poll-watchers who were convinced Romney would win
Ask the networks with their big resources who constantly had battleground states slipping away from Obama until the last week or less
also, Google ‘fixed line phones and polling’
one of the MANY discussions of the problems facing the polling industry that will come up in Google is thie
“The polling industry is clearly at a crossroads. In 2016, or 2020, telephone surveys may no longer be the prevailing way to measure what the public thinks or how it intends to vote. But all of the alternatives, for now, have significant drawbacks that put the industry in a sort of limbo—clinging desperately to an increasingly outdated practice while it tries to find better methodologies.
“Conversations with prominent survey researchers—academic, media, and private campaign pollsters—reveal both optimism and uncertainty about the future of the polling industry and the medium-term prospects for accurately measuring public opinion. The future may not be now for public-opinion polling, but it is fast approaching”
http://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/who-responds-to-telephone-polls-anymore-20120719
You whinge more about what could happen, then what did.
No doubt there is concern leading into the future, but the recent results used primarily by you lot - the US Election - had deeper flaws in some cases.
Check http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/10/which-polls-fared-best-and-worst-in-the-2012-presidential-race/?_r=0 and note that all but three were in the major of error, and even the worst used cell data.
As the National Journal pointed out elsewhere, “Calling the proper number of cell phones is not a guarantee of accuracy: Gallup, which called the most cell phones, was considered among the least accurate survey firms in its 2012 pre-election polls; PPP, which called none, was considered among the most accurate,” and that future errors in landline-only data is only ‘likely’.
Polling is a far deeper science than you can grasp.
Gallup investigated their poor result and found more than landlines as an issue;
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/06/04/gallup-poll-2012_n_3384882.html
“On Tuesday, at a press briefing and in a 17-page report, Gallup named four factors that lessened the accuracy of its polling. As expected, no one problem alone accounted for its difficulties in 2012.”
Misidentification of Likely Voters.
Under-Representation of Regions.
Faulty Representation of Race and Ethnicity.
Nonstandard Sampling Method.
________________
Your reliance and concentration on one issue clouds your overall judgement on the matter.
Your attempt to ‘play the man’ against me also indicates you’re too emotive to see reality.
Barrie does NOT answer emails so he will NOT reply here.
By the way I need Brian Toohey’s email to clarify a point he made on The Insiders a while back. Can somebody help me? He said Howard got $29 a tonne for iron ore and Swan only gets $9. I wanna ask him where he got this figure from and if it means tax per tonne or what?
Obviously Brian Toohey is a non-person?