The Usual Murdoch Dirty Tricks (61): Tuesday’s Newspoll, Decrypted

O’Shannessy’s new rules of engagement, no polling on Sunday night, plus his old dirty tricks, ringing only home phones on school holidays and not identifying the Katter Party or correctly distributing its likely preferences, or counting a million ‘Undecideds’ or four hundred thousand ‘Refused’s, have with difficulty achieved Rupert Murdoch’s desire, a 56-44 margin for Abbott’s coalition.

Properly looked at, the margin is actually 52-48; and if Clare, Carr, Swan or Shorten were Prime Minister, it would be 52-48 the other way. Abbott’s embracement of piracy and page 68 of the Duffy book will soon finish him, Turnbull will be back, and Labor will change leaders, and it’s hard to see who the new leader will be. Clare, the most electable, will be seen as too inexperienced, and Crean, the most experienced, as too repellent, Carr in the wrong House, Shorten too closely allied with Gillard and too ambitious, Rudd too crazy, Combet too dull, Smith too invisible (compared with, say, Carr), Plibersek the wrong gender, Swan overworn and undereloquent, Burke too Catholic, Bowen too like a questing mole, and none of them able easily to beat Turnbull.

It would help if Newspoll were honest.

Or if they did a poll on Clare versus Abbott, Carr versus Abbott, Shorten versus Abbott and then Turnbull and so on.

Does Shorten’s front-page appearance in the Monthly mean he’s a contender now? Hard to say, and I know him. Hard to say. I suspect he’s massively undecided.

Something is brewing though, and I’m sure no-one, including the principals, knows how it will go.

Those who think I’m unfair when I say O’Shannessy cheats I would ask why Newspoll needs a CEO. The numbers are what they are. What is a CEO for, then, if not to tweak them?

How does he earn his money?

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  1. Face it Bob you and all us lefties will be marginalised for a good ten years. Murdoch will last that long at least. The unscupulous run the place.It was founded on corruption and the brown paper bag is still going around. MAYBE THE Geens good policies will bring about some changes for the better but beieve me Labor is fucked and they deserve to be for what they did to Rudd. Maybe he wasn’t their choice but he was ours warts and all. You don’t fuck with democracy without repercusions.

    • If they’re fucked it’s because of what Rudd and Gillard did to Beazley. Rudd was horrible. Don’t imagine they would have done it if he’d been any good. He was worse than Latham. Really.

      • Bob’s on the money here. Rudd is a nasty of piece of work - and I’m a Queenslander!

        • Frank,you both might be on the money according to your knowledge and view.

          But it pales into insignificance in the context of what the hoi polloi would accept.

  2. The poll I agree is shonky in its methodology but Bob,’if they did a poll on Clare versus Abbott, Carr versus Abbott, Shorten versus Abbott and then Turnbull and so on’if the so on included Rudd (who you call crazy)you would get to see what the punters are thinking.

    Elevating Clare; I wondered why he has been on ABC24 enunciating at length about stuff he could easily keep to himself.

    Elevating Swan; Might fit his ego but suffocating for the party.

    Elevating Carr; Punters don’ want to be ‘educated’ especially I suspect those in NSW.

    Elevating Shorten; The quid each way kid. Viewed with suspicion. after the Rudd affair.

    Elevating Combet; Well ‘it may or may not’ happen. (with fixed stare into space).

    So after Rudd, the punters choice, though not some in the ALP all that’s left is Doug Cameron for PM.

    • If punters don’t want to be educated why did they elect Carr, the educator, three times?

      • I can’t answer that Bob; I live in Victoria.

        But what are we trying to do?
        Anoint Carr as PM because he’s intelligent for the sake of it?
        Or hold government?

        Among my colleagues and acquaintances some of whom suffer a severe list to starboard admittedly, the notion is met with derision.

  3. “The poll… shonky in its methodology”

    How so? Please enlighten us.

    And, as for Bob Carr, you suspect right. NSW people have already BEEN educated about him.

  4. You lot will have to get your head out of the sand. He might be a nasty piece of work within the party but he has his own mind and doesn’t belong to any of the archaic faction system works hard and expects the same out of everyone. It is obvious why he was a micro-manager just look at the mess the party is in now. But moost importantly he is liked and respected by a hell of a lot more in the electorate then anyone else in the party. Get real

  5. hudsongodfrey

    Well in for a Penny. If as Shad says Labor is liable to be well and truly rogered at the next election then of the potential leaders they could go with don’t rule out Carr under the Newman system. They parachute him into a safe seat and get him elected as the new leader designate at the same time. That part of the plan seems at least to be doable.

    Shorten got his hands dirty on Rudd, and I think probably does both want and need his pound of flesh, but maybe he’s a patient and pragmatic enough to take a back seat for a while longer. The others while senior and probably capable aren’t charismatic enough to win in what’s going to be a really tough contest if it is winnable at all.

    I don’t think they will roll Abbott, even though I think Turnbull is far more palatable than the Mad Monk. If they did then the same old problems of lacking support for his autocratic style and centrist policies would probably emerge and see him undermined for a second time.

    The most radical idea I can see that might be tried would be to back track on the last week’s shenanigans and actually form an official coalition with the greens so as to lock in the left leaning vote across the board. I mean to say, if you’re going down in flames anyway then you might as well give the electorate a clear choice, make policy changes now, and take the opposition on straightforwardly.

    Abandon Malaysia, Nauru and long term mandatory detention. Take up the Palmer solution instead.

    Talk only about shifting to an ETS on carbon, and make sure to reintroduce solar rebates.

    Pass gay marriage now and get it over with it can only hurt to wait. It means the emphasis is on the negative if Abbott decides to repeal it, and you know that the glossies are only going to embrace any high profile gay weddings as good news stories.

    Share the mining tax revenue with the states to buy them off but do it in the form of compensation for water rights so you can claim to have fixed the river system while simultaneously isolating the mining lobby. This one is admittedly Machiavellian, because if you structure it so you only have to buy back the water usage during drought years or simply delay the change until the next budget then that emotional trigger of the surplus promise may even materialise.

    Last but not least get Gillard to go willingly and celebrate what she has achieved instead of simply knifing her like they did Rudd.

    • Hands dirty on Rudd? How do you get your hands dirty doing what’s good for the party?

      What are you talking about?

      • Its about perceptions amongst an electorate who might not make the same value judgements as those of us who saw Rudd’s demise as necessary.

        Do you think Gillard can win?

        If not and we agree the game’s afoot my premise was, I’m in for a Penny in for a Pound. And quite happy to be persuaded that some of my brainstorming suggestions might prove fruitless. :wink:

  6. Bob Carr. You must be joking. You have to win seats in NSW to win government.
    Anyone driving to work curses the man for getting into bed with the investment wankers and building toll roads everywhere instead of railways as promised. People are in gridlock during peak hour and have the privilge of paying tolls in excess of $100 a week not to mention the cost of sitting there burning fuel and adding pollution. And two months after he suddenly resigns he is in the pay of Macquarie. What would a journo of his calibre know about investment banking. He wouldn’t know the bottom from the top of a spreadsheet.Like I said Bob the brown paper bag keeps going round and round. That was an act of diversion politics making him foreign affairs minister I don’t think the electorate blames Iemma’ Reece or Keneally for our infrastructure failure. People are still wondering where the hell all the money went under his watch.

  7. Abbott and his neo con mates have an ace up their sleeve as unpalitable as it might be for them and that is the obvious-Turnball. Making him more prominent leading up to the election will give the conservative and swinging voters pause for thought that he will eventually replace the looney Abbott. As for Labor they have irretrievably trashed their brand. They must plan a damage control strategy so they are in with a chance in 7 years time Choosing Clare or someone with any future potential is just plain stupid. Give the poison chaice to Rudd and they can massage his ego and blame him for th loss. But if he wins look out, duck for cover.

    • Nah Shad, can’t agree making voters hanker for Turnbull as some like of teaser doesn’t make sense. Turnbull either ousts the Monk or he’s basically a liability because every time Abbott’s mouth opens you can virtually see Turnbull’s eye’s rolling.

  8. One thing is for sure Abbott willbe leader going into the next election and if they don’t replace Gillard with Rudd it will be a slaughter. Some chance is better than none at all

    • This is the Murdoch position and it’s clear you work for him. No-one who cares for Labor wants Rudd back. All the talented ministers but Albo hate him and Carr overwhelmed his memory. He has about eight steady votes and it’s not going to happen without an accord with Shorten who detests him.

      • ‘No-one who cares for Labor wants Rudd back’.

        I resent that remark!

        And who are these talented Ministers?

        Name them.

        • Shorten, Roxon, Carr, Carr, Clare, Combet, Crean, Garrett, Smith, Macklin, Bowen … all but Martin Ferguson, Albo and Plibersek.

          • You could have rounded out your list by the including the other talents; Ludwig,Emerson, Burke, O’Connor, Butler.

            Seriously, you have to be joking.

            Shorten, kudos for his work on disability OK; Roxon,kicking a can down the street as Health Minister, gawd knows what will happen as AG. Macklin; Some of us don’t need to be patronised and smiled at whilst being screwed behind our backs.
            Garret OK despite the media frenzy over someone else’s work.

            And so it goes.

          • Kim Carr and Bowen are for Rudd. Surely you know that?

  9. I don’t know why you (Bob Ellis)think the Murdoch press loves Kevin Rudd. When he was PM, The Australian constantly ran extremely negative stories about him (no doubt provided by his colleagues, Swan and Shorten). If the paper has had a change of heart recently, there is probably an ulterior motive: destabilise the Labor government perhaps? Nevertheless, Labor has to change leaders as soon as possible and Kevin Rudd is probably the only candidate who has a chance of lifting the vote. It seems to me, your attacks on him are personal. Perhaps you are a great hater like a lot of other people associated with the Labor party, and you can’t forgive him for something or other he did to Kim Beasley? I liked Kim Beasley too, but he did lead the Labor party to two electoral defeats, whereas Rudd won government with a significant majority after only one attempt. And the fact is, the Australian public still like him.

    • Destabilise, yes, both times.

      Beazley twenty-nine months after the 1996 wipeout won 400, 000 more votes than Howard. On the day Rudd replaced him Labor was on 54. It is on 44 now, and you say he was well overthrown?


  10. ‘Loveable Leaders’ in coming to, and holding power (for a time), ’til it went pear shaped… Adolph Hitler, Mussolini, Richard Nixon (clipped at the post first time around by Jack Kennedy), George W. Bush (the world is still paying for allowing the democratic theft of the Presidential Office by ‘The Wrecking Crew’, i.e. Republicans, and placing a cretin at the head of a world superpower for 8 years - and are working feverishly again to worm another cretin into that same position)… but, I digress… in a world of real change that we are in now and here on in (as palpable as the Industrial Revolution of 200 yrs back), isn’t it comforting to know one element is constant: when it comes to appointing leaders, the electorate are, on averages, mugs, falling for ‘a great bloke (rarely a woman), one of us’, who is going to turn things around (not just boats), is going to to deliver low interest rates, low unemployment, a strong economy among the sturdiest in the world… what? we already have that?… well, why then the gloom and doom? Because someone’s been running around the country shouting from the rooftops “Things are crook! Real bad! And they’re only gonna get badder!”… is that why we’ve stopped spending and stashing the bucks away in the bank like never before…? Okay, okay, a rambling I have gone… to wind up, Latham had Rudd’s number when he snared Kev in a ‘honey trap’ leaking info to the media, and when caught out, had Kev bawling his eyes out in Latham’s office begging him not to send him off to the back benches. Silly old duffer - Latham could have done Labor a real service knee capping him back then…

  11. It is truly a problem, I would only like to say if Rudd had actually done what he said he was going to do or at least some of it health, climate, dental etc etc. Instead of running of around the world going look at me, look at me I can speak Chinese everyone loves me, he would be still living at an entirely different address.

  12. That dumb Dastyari doesn’t realize that if Labor preference the Greens last in the lower house the Greens will Preference Labor last in the upper house and give the liberals a chance of gaining control of the senate. The Greens are only contesting 3 senate seats this election and have six others that are not up for grabs for two more elections. If they preference labor last then the Libs will definitely get at least one more. These smart ass new labour are out of touch. Rudd at least is in touch with the present era and that is why he is so liked by the young voters. tweet tweet The new era of technology is something he grasped full on. The election he won proves that beyond doubt.
    The rest of the crew with few exceptions are living in the past because their brains can’t adept. Archaic labor are fucked and I am very sorry to have to say that. Rudd would have the intelligence and forsight to have modern visionaries working beside him not the motely self serving neadrathals that have infected a once great visionary party. Good Night and Good Luck Bob. P.S.Beasley blinked and showed his morals were secondary. Had he not he would have won Bob. Don’t blame Rudd

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