Today’s Newspoll

It shows, of course, Labor on 56.5 and Abbott losing forty-eight or fifty seats. But it isn’t presented that way.

‘Based on preference flow at September, 2013,’ it says. But that was when Palmer voters, for instance, thought Abbott might keep his word. Morgan shows, each fortnight, that this ‘preference flow’ has gone up, by 1 percent, to Labor.

’6 percent uncommitted and 1 percent refused.’ Three and a half of these seven would go to Labor.

‘Better Prime Minister Abbott 40, 38 percent Shorten, 22 percent uncommitted.’ That would shake down, probably, as Shorten 52, Abbott 48.

’1134 interviews with voters.’ Yeah, that’s voters with landlines, an almost extinct technology. Most of them are over eighty. 1 more percent to Labor.

‘Margin of error 3 percent.’ No doubt, no doubt. 1.5 more percent to Labor.

Plus the 53 percent they’re admitting to.

56.5 percent. Wipeout.

It would be nice if they were honest about it.

But they’re Newspoll, from News Limited, and they work for Murdoch.

Why should they be.

Leave a comment ?


  1. This Newspoll’s internals raise a question about their computer modelling.

    It has Labor’s primary at only 34%, no change at all from last month’s Newspoll, even though Labor’s 2 PP has jumped 4%.

    So, that would require the 5% decrease in the LNP’s Primary to have gone through some sort of whirlygig model in order for the Labor Party to collect 80% of the LNP’s primary reduction.

    The answer to this question is elementary, my dear Watson (and many of you will instantly picture which Watson I am alluding to here!) :grin:

    • I don’t quite understand I heard the guy from Newspoll say this morning that none of the decrease from the LNP went to the ALP, how can that be? They went from the LNP directly to the Greens, because no mention was made of PUP?


      • That might be the net effect, but that doesn’t mean that’s what the voters are actually doing.

        More likely, it is the LNP’s voters splitting to Palmer and Labor, while Labor continues to bleed voters on the Left to the Greens.

  2. Every other poll sees the COALition getting smashed. Newspoll deserves to be derided.

  3. Essential shows even at 52% ALP 48% LNP. More caution and waiting.

    • Essential lags change, however, as it is a rolling two-week average.

      The 52-48 from Essential likely represents a 53-47 or 54-46 result from this last week and a 51-49 or 50-50 from the week before.

  4. Interesting that the Morgan Poll shows a 10% drop in the coalition vote among the over 65s

    Abbott has really spooked the oldies
    who won’t forget the danger to their pensions at all…bad politics directed against the Coalition’s most supportive demographic group

    silly silly silly Tony

  5. I think Turnbull just started his campaign against Abbott, from England. 25 minutes that I bet will get liberal loyalists thinking about who really should be leading the party.

    • His campaign started the day he lost the LO to the tabbott.

      It has only been hibernating, biding its time.

    • Can’t listen to Turnbull either. He is on the blame game more than anyone. He seems puny and lacking in confidence. What do they say? a hollow man.

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