It has Labor on 55 and the Coalition on 45, the best result for Labor since December 2010. But it was taken on two weekends, one of them before Abbott’s great big new tax came in, and the delay of the start of the old age pension, which measures were greeted with disgust and horror by many older, middle aged, and young Liberals
This means the actual figure is now, as I predicted, 56 or 56.5. This would mean a loss for Abbott of thirty-five seats, including his own, and the decimation of the LNP in Queensland, NSW, Victoria and South Australia.
Labor is on 54.5 in Queensland on this poll; 59 in South Australia; 58.5 in Tasmania; 58.5 in Victoria; 52.5 in NSW; 48.5 in WA.
More significantly, perhaps, 59 percent women vote or prefer Labor, and only 50.5 percent of men. But it’s very, very likely, after the news of the kids not getting the dole till they’re twenty-five, and having to pay off bigger student loans more quickly, the women’s vote will be on 61 by tonight, and will not, hereafter, come down.
On that figure Pyne and Turnbull would lose their seats too, Morrison and Cormann, Julie and Bronwyn Bishop, and all of Sydney’s West come back to Labor.
It may be the end of the whole post-Menzies adventure, with Palmer seizing the mandate of heaven, and becoming the principal ‘conservative’ face in the nation.