Today’s Morgan Poll

It has Labor on 55 and the Coalition on 45, the best result for Labor since December 2010. But it was taken on two weekends, one of them before Abbott’s great big new tax came in, and the delay of the start of the old age pension, which measures were greeted with disgust and horror by many older, middle aged, and young Liberals

This means the actual figure is now, as I predicted, 56 or 56.5. This would mean a loss for Abbott of thirty-five seats, including his own, and the decimation of the LNP in Queensland, NSW, Victoria and South Australia.

Labor is on 54.5 in Queensland on this poll; 59 in South Australia; 58.5 in Tasmania; 58.5 in Victoria; 52.5 in NSW; 48.5 in WA.

More significantly, perhaps, 59 percent women vote or prefer Labor, and only 50.5 percent of men. But it’s very, very likely, after the news of the kids not getting the dole till they’re twenty-five, and having to pay off bigger student loans more quickly, the women’s vote will be on 61 by tonight, and will not, hereafter, come down.

On that figure Pyne and Turnbull would lose their seats too, Morrison and Cormann, Julie and Bronwyn Bishop, and all of Sydney’s West come back to Labor.

It may be the end of the whole post-Menzies adventure, with Palmer seizing the mandate of heaven, and becoming the principal ‘conservative’ face in the nation.

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26 Comments.

  1. That would be great but whom will call a double dissolution.
    No one is game.
    All they want to do is start in fighting again and implode for the second time ,too silly to take the chance and too stupid to stay united.

  2. Abbott’s margin in Warringah is 15 percent and some change. How do you figure his own seat is at risk?

    Other than his party potentially not giving him pre-selection for it, that is.

    • Do the math. 56.5 means, in NSW, 58, a swing of 12 percent. Which means a majority, for Labor, in Warringah, of 3.5 percent.

      Morgan suggests that Labor is already on 57, and rising.

      Australia wide.

      • Let me make that more clear. A 15 percent majority needs a 7.5 percent swing to nullify it, and a 7.51 swing to give the contested seat to Abbott’s opponent. The swing we are looking at now, if Labor is on 55, is 8.5 percent.

        Comprendez?

        • When I said 15%, I meant that’s his margin above 50%. In your terms, you would say that his margin is 30% (65-35).

          A swing of 15% would be required.

          Further, Morgan actually provides state breakdowns, and this one shows the ALP ahead 52.5-47.5 in NSW. Even with margin of error, that’s only 55-45 in the ALP’s favour… at most a swing of 9.5% since the 2013 election.

          As much as I’d like to see him emulate his former boss, I just don’t see it happening on these figures.

  3. I read today that the Commission of Audit intend to slash the $100m budget of Screen Australia meagre budget by half. Moreover they say that the remaining sums should be spent on historic films of suitable merit,

    I guess they mean wholesome comedy films like 30 year old virgin John Howard living at home in shorts with mum or pig iron Bob Menzies heroic exploits dealings with the Japs in Kokoda. I guess.

    Its hard to say what this means exactly, but the downscaling and decimation of a film industry. And why should Govt. dictate what films are made anyway? Hard to understand the logic…Maybe George Brandis as Arts minister has a list of approved state sanctioned films.

    Its hard to reconcile the funding of our national identity and what defines us with saving a measly $50m against a massive $24 BILLION wasteful spend on propping up a US war industry – planes that don’t fly very well and may never leave the ground. Hard to support that notion. Hard to endorse this idea Tony. Do reconsider it old friend lest we wobble and reconsider our support. Not all Libs are mad y’know.

    • “I am determined not to increase the overall tax burden. I am absolutely determined not to increase the overall tax burden on anyone.”

      Bend over Frank, your mate Tony’s gonna let his budgie out for a stretch of its wings.

      • We must hope that the Tabbott parakeet has not the DH Lawrence beak that so troubled Oliver Mellors -keeper of the game

    • Thanks for that, Frank. The following is predictable, I know, but the image is hard to shift:

      http://www.historyonthenet.com/Nazi_Germany/images/triumphwill.jpg

    • Does this not smack of Stalinist cinema? You know, COMMUNISM! and that bastard child SOCIALISM! No, must be way off beam here. LNP won’t have a bar of either… so, let’s put it down to Muddleheaded Wombats at the wheel. Yes, must be it.

      • Isn’t that what we expect from Conservatives? We won’t see films about serious social issues, like ‘Candy’ or ‘The Jammed’ – they’re miserable and depressing, and only inner-city Greens and Labor voters watch them anyway.

  4. Richelieu II

    The Liberals are collapsing and are going to fall a lot further in the polls. Its going to get worse before it gets really bad for the Liberals and the fact that they were already flat lining just a month or two after the election means there is no way back.They will be annihilated in the next Federal election. Completely annihilated.

  5. Oh Bliss!!! A full-on student demo on Q&A! Takes me back to the good old days!

    I was wondering if anything would stir them – not an unjust war, alas …

    • The Young Libs have already demanded a Right of Reply and plan to disrupt next week’s show by rattling their jewelry for 5 minutes.

  6. Nothing can stop Labor from returning to the government benches it seems. Except stupidity.

    What is Bill doing to Shorten the odds? Right about now, I hope he’s sacking the staffer who stupidly decided now is the time to put a price of $3,300 on Bill’s presence.

  7. Next week’s Q&A lineup includes David Marr but not Mr Ellis – have you been sounded out, Bob?

  8. But the LNP just think the electorate is having a hissie, that ‘they’ll get over it’. It’s the same ‘it’s her time of the month, she’ll get over it’ type attitude that infects so many tories. In two years time they’ll have all come back to us as we are the rightful rulers.

  9. Looking at the raw figures, Abbott had 58,374 votes and Zanetti (Labor) had 30,953 votes after preferences.

    To see Abbott lose his seat would require around 14,000 people to change their votes from Liberal to Labor, out of 99,000 votes. That is a 15% swing. Not impossible, but highly unlikely.

    Much as we’d like to see him lose his seat . . .

    • Howard lost his, so nothing is impossible. What Labor needs is a compelling candidate, someone like Tanya Plibersek who can appeal to cautious conservatives and gather in the shifting population of renters and surfers in the area.

      • If Labor could find another Tanya and put her in Abbott’s electorate, that would finish him ,I reckon.

        • I’m Labor to my boot heels, but when Tanya is droning on, she has the same effect on me as a tranquilliser.

          ABC24 didn’t do her any favours over the weekend, interviewing her & replaying it uncut, retakes & all. A cruel act intended to belittle her I thought.

      • doug quixote

        Howard’s best margin was 47,427 to 34,768 in 2001.

        Bennelong was always far more marginal than Warringah. Even though 8,000 changed their minds by 2007, it is a long way short of the 14,000 required to unseat the tabbott.

        • Zanetti may be a little too low-profile … but he is tech savvy, and of an age that will appeal to many of the shifting population of younger people in the electorate? With some serious support put his way, who knows?

          And I’m still reveling in the unseating of the appalling Sophie Mirabella by Cathy … at least we no longer have to put up with ‘The Mouth from the South’ on Q&A or Lateline.

          Small miracles:

          http://www.theballadeers.com/scots/images/eb/1997_miracles.jpg

  10. If labor started now and bombarded the area with things that he is doing that would effect the people in his electorate would be a very good start

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