In Twenty-Nine Words

It is probably worth noting that if the Morgan Poll of this afternoon is right and the numbers do not change both Abbott and Hockey will lose their seats.

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  1. Tonight’s Newspoll has apparently a 2 PP of Labor 53 to LNP 47, but don’t know the primaries which are always weird with this poll anyway. Based on Newspoll track record, I’d reckon this backs up Morgan’s Labor on 55, yet okay with splitting the diff at Labor on 54.

    Word of a Leadership challenge against PM will soon be leaked to MSM, and speculation will run wild by mid-year.

    • Given that Morgan’s headline figure is on respondent-allocated preferences and every other pollster uses last-election preferences, the figure to compare with is the 53.5 from Morgan, not the 55.

      Given that, a 53 from Newspoll is basically what you’d expect – and confirmation of the Morgan poll’s results.

  2. Is there any chance he could loose his Prime Ministership before the next election.

    • Every chance he could be gone right now, if only the Looters Party could find an acceptable replacement.

      If they get desperate enough they will go for Turnbull.

      Even though most of them hate him.

    • He’s already loosing his Prime Ministership. On Us.

  3. Here’s Pollbludger host’s report on tonight’s Newspoll:

    “The first Newspoll in four weeks has Labor leading 53-47, compared with 51-49 in favour of the Coalition last time. Primary votes are 38% for the Coalition (down five), 34% for Labor (steady) and 14% for the Greens (up three). Tony Abbott is down five on approval to 35% and up nine on disapproval to 56%, while Bill Shorten is up four to 35% and down one to 41%. Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has shrunk from 41-33 to 40-38.”

  4. Abbott may yet again follow in the faded footsteps of his aging political father John Winston Howard, bringing the number of Prime Ministers to lose their seats at an election to two.

    Hockey won’t miss politics. He’s lazy and not sure why he’s there.

    • As much as I’d like to see it, I doubt it.

      Abbott’s margin in Warringah is 65-35 and the swing on in New South Wales is, at most, ten percent.

      Once the polls start reading 58 or 59 ALP, then we can talk about it.

      • I want them to lose, God I want that, but I don’t want the polls going over the top and a change of leadership to Turnbull. And incidentally at some point it would be wise of the ALP to target him now, to chip away beforehand at any honeymoon period he might enjoy, the prat. There he was last week talking about ‘the labor mind-set’ whatever the fuck that is. More conservative projection!

        • Yes – the biggest threat to a Labor shoe-in would be Turnbull, turning the heads of those who can’t see through the smooth charm to the inner spiv.

          That, and Labor’s uncanny instinct to fuck things up with internal sturm und drang.

  5. Fairfax has reported that Joe Hockey’s campaign fundraising body, the North Sydney Forum, has been offering VIP meetings to groups including business people and industry lobbyists in return for annual fees of up to $22,000.

    While two former Liberal leaders have called for sweeping reforms to political donations, a furious Mr Hockey hit back on Monday, labelling the report “both offensive and repugnant”, and has put the matter in the hands of his lawyers.

    Now there goes a champion of free speech. (That’s him behind that bank of lawyers, business people and industry lobbyists.)

  6. Dali, you are so right about Hockey.

  7. Richelieu II

    Abbott, Hockey and Pyne losing their seats. It will happen.

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