I’m no longer that amazed, of course, by the twisting of truth in the Murdoch polls, but I was surprised by how much yesterday’s Galaxy, in The Sunday Telegraph, hid from view.
Labor was on 52 and the Coalition 48 two party preferred, and Labor primary vote was 37 and the Coalition 39.
But we weren’t told how well Palmer was doing, across the nation, and where his preferences were going.
It’s probable they were distributed as if it were 2013. But it’s no longer like that. It’s no longer anything of the sort.
If, as I suspect, the primary vote was Labor 37, Liberal 31, National 8, Green 10, Palmer 10, DLP, Family First and Independents 4, and 92 percent of the Green preferences, 55 percent of the Palmer preferences, and 40 percent of the others went to Labor, then Labor two party preferred was actually 53.3, somewhat larger than the Ruddslide of 2007.
…But this was only if the primary figures were accurate.
The poll was on landlines on Wednesday and Thursday, the first poll on those two days in a non-election context in world history. Why, one might ask, was it taken then?
Well, on both those days most people are working, and Thursday night is in most states Late Shopping Night, when many, many voters are still working, or driving home. It is likely that most of the respondents answering landlines, an almost extinct technology, were over eighty, an age group who voted for Menzies once and stayed for sixty years in the habit.
Let us imagine that these facts biased, or cheated, the sample by 1.5 percent, the Liberals’ way.
This would put the Labor vote, two party preferred, at 54.8, its highest since early 2001 when, pre-Tampa, Newpoll predicted Beazley winning by an avalanche.
But it would also show Palmer on 11, which is 3 percent ahead of the National Party and line-ball with the Greens, and altering the political map, if true, all over the continent.
And, oh yes, Shorten leading Abbott as preferred Prime Minister by 50 to 40.
All this The Sunday Telegraph sought, successfully, to cover up. Which allowed poor sad sack Gerard Henderson to say, on Insiders, ‘Well, 48 isn’t so bad. They can win with 49.’
The actual figure they are on is probably 45.2, and nobody wins from there.
For it loses Abbott, probably, thirty-eight seats and gives Labor a forty-eight seat majority.
As I say, I’m not surprised at the dishonesty of the Murdochists’ concealment of how the people are actually thinking, and voting.
But I am, for the moment, till Morgan comes out tomorrow, showing Labor on 56, disgusted by its blatancy.