Galaxy Deciphered: Labor To Win With Forty-Eight Seat Majority

I’m no longer that amazed, of course, by the twisting of truth in the Murdoch polls, but I was surprised by how much yesterday’s Galaxy, in The Sunday Telegraph, hid from view.

Labor was on 52 and the Coalition 48 two party preferred, and Labor primary vote was 37 and the Coalition 39.

But we weren’t told how well Palmer was doing, across the nation, and where his preferences were going.

It’s probable they were distributed as if it were 2013. But it’s no longer like that. It’s no longer anything of the sort.

If, as I suspect, the primary vote was Labor 37, Liberal 31, National 8, Green 10, Palmer 10, DLP, Family First and Independents 4, and 92 percent of the Green preferences, 55 percent of the Palmer preferences, and 40 percent of the others went to Labor, then Labor two party preferred was actually 53.3, somewhat larger than the Ruddslide of 2007.

…But this was only if the primary figures were accurate.

The poll was on landlines on Wednesday and Thursday, the first poll on those two days in a non-election context in world history. Why, one might ask, was it taken then?

Well, on both those days most people are working, and Thursday night is in most states Late Shopping Night, when many, many voters are still working, or driving home. It is likely that most of the respondents answering landlines, an almost extinct technology, were over eighty, an age group who voted for Menzies once and stayed for sixty years in the habit.

Let us imagine that these facts biased, or cheated, the sample by 1.5 percent, the Liberals’ way.

This would put the Labor vote, two party preferred, at 54.8, its highest since early 2001 when, pre-Tampa, Newpoll predicted Beazley winning by an avalanche.

But it would also show Palmer on 11, which is 3 percent ahead of the National Party and line-ball with the Greens, and altering the political map, if true, all over the continent.

And, oh yes, Shorten leading Abbott as preferred Prime Minister by 50 to 40.

All this The Sunday Telegraph sought, successfully, to cover up. Which allowed poor sad sack Gerard Henderson to say, on Insiders, ‘Well, 48 isn’t so bad. They can win with 49.’

The actual figure they are on is probably 45.2, and nobody wins from there.

For it loses Abbott, probably, thirty-eight seats and gives Labor a forty-eight seat majority.

As I say, I’m not surprised at the dishonesty of the Murdochists’ concealment of how the people are actually thinking, and voting.

But I am, for the moment, till Morgan comes out tomorrow, showing Labor on 56, disgusted by its blatancy.

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27 Comments.

  1. To be fair, Galaxy was taken before the CoA report sank in.

    ReachTEL, taken afterward, shows ALP 54 to LNP 46 with primaries of ALP 40, LNP 39.

  2. The Age of Entitlement is Over?

    Treasurer Joe Hockey has moved to head off a damaging fight with Australia’s mining industry, assuring them there will not be any cuts to the diesel fuel rebate in next Tuesday’s budget.

    According to the Parliamentary Budget Office, the rebate to the mining industry is expected to cost $2.4 billion over the next financial year.

    AM has been told Mr Hockey gave an assurance late yesterday that the Government would not touch the rebate in its first budget.

    The Age of Wealth Concentration gathers pace.

    • In case it didnt sink in…….

      That is 2,500 million which COULD have beeb used to pay down debt, let alone reduce the budget pain for the most vulnerable.

      What a disgusting betrayal of voter trust.

      • That’s because the general public imagines that the diesel rebate only goes to poor, struggling farmers … not to BHP, Gina and Alcoa.

        Another cudgel for Labor to use, and re-educate people with.

        Wonder if they will pick it up, or circle around it, prod it carefully with their foot, and decide it’s too hard, best left alone?

        • Glow,
          You are most sagacious to raise this urgent matter of what Labor does with these rare “free kicks” during the next fortnight.

          Alas, I reckon that LOTO Shorten is likely to slip on his kid gloves yet again and launch another savage wet lettuce swipe or two at broken promises and twisted priorities.

          Just think of the handsome salaries that a whole gaggle of spin doctors are being paid to advise Mr. Shorten to recycle these lame responses despite them being nowhere near as damaging to Abbott’s Coalooters’ Party as Clive Palmer’s “rabbit punches” or even Christine Milne’s knees right to the nether region.

          I beg Labor’s Federal Shadow Cabinet to offer Mr. Ellis a bottle of “Grange” or vintage “Sarsaparilla” and pick Bob’s brain over a long lunch at a gourmet noshery of his choosing.

          • Hemingway13, I’ll even pick up the tab.

            I despair, I really do. I seat myself ringside come the evening news, knuckles flexing, willing our side to start dealing a few lethal blows, only to see Shorten with eyes open slightly wider than usual, saying blah blah blah blah blah, and blah.

            Labor desperately needs a Rottweiler.

            • 1/ a lot of farming is done now by multinational consortia;

              2/ the cost of fuel is already a tax deduction;

              3/ as usual, the libs are tough with the weak, and weak with the powerful.

  3. The SMH has an article about Hockey’s fund raising and probable (certain?) sleazy side to it, with exclusive paid access to a government minister. Whilst this sort of behaviour has always been un-democratic, for some reason the community has tolerated it. Perhaps in the current circumstances that should now be seen for what it is, be banned, made un-parliamentary, a denial of the peoples’ voices, similar to feudal ways of ruling that Australia has fought hard to slowly expunge from our way of life. Ministers are falling for fund-raising activities in NSW ( although of course the legality is always clouded).

    Hockey should resign for … , wait, the list is too long.

  4. Here’s a piece from New Yorker, 2006 on Bush that has a very unsettling ring to it…

    Bush was returned in 2004 with what he believed was bucket loads of ‘political capital’ and “now I intend to spend it”…

    ‘And spend it he did’… blowing a wad ‘trying to turn Social Security (America’s welfare budget) into a bonanza for the FINANCIAL SERVICES INDUSTRY’ (my caps)… does this
    sound familiar to unfolding events …?

    • There is a connecting link between the US Tea Party right wing neo-liberal Republican original and the Australian franchise.

      That ally of Nixon and Kissnger who got rid of Whitlam for them.

      That Australian Citizen Kane.
      Can you say Rosebud?

      His royal highness the Duke of Toorak.

      Sir Rpuert Murdoch
      Lord of the Cinq Ports.

    • Bush was taught the term “political capital” by his little mate John Howard!

  5. The pricks only need one term to cause irreparable damage. The real problem I fear is that Lanor may move more to the right, they’ve seen that this behaviour gets you elected.

  6. The polls won’t move far, or fast. The pollsters think that things move slowly and inexorably the way they think they should move, and they will ‘adjust’ the results, ‘correct’ for unusual deviations, discard ‘aberrations’ and ‘seasonally adjust’ wherever the ‘normal distribution’ is exceeded.

    Don’t you worry about that.

    • D.Q.

      Spot on there, “Joh”! :wink:

      Obama won re-election defeating Romney by 51% to 47%, yet the Real Clear Politics “aggregate” of all pollsters predicted a dead heat. The oldest and most profitable pollster, Gallup (America’s Newspoll), was farthest off the result out of 24 national polling organisations. Gallup’s motto was right out of a Hollywood classic: “Cellphones? Cellphones?
      We don’t need to poll no stinkin’ cellphones!”*

      *”Cellphones” = American lingo for mobile phones. :grin:

      • A problem for Labor in particular is the informal vote. In some supposedly safe seats the informal vote was 11 or 12% which resulted in some safe seats being lost. My own seat of Barton was one of them where some no-hoper got himself elected for on term.

        Why was the Informal vote so high? My pet theory is that whilst Gillard replacing Rudd was one thing, Rudd returning was another thing and only Rudd’s diehards (plenty of them on here) were pleased with the obvious indecisiveness and the blatant attempt to retain government at any cost, in response to opinion polls.

        The polls successfully panicked Labor members into Rudd redux, which to me was a disaster and to most neutral observers a mistake too far.

        Labor needs to unite behind the leader. Not for nothing is the saying “disunity is death.”

    • ” they will ‘adjust’ the results”

      these results have been adjusted to take into accout the views of our proprietor

  7. This would be good news if facts played any part in the way people vote but experience shows this not to be true. The tory chairman called Howard “mean & tricky” among other things but still he won elections.

  8. “In exclusive Galaxy poll commissioned by The Sunday Telegraph has found Mr Abbott would lose an election if it was held now, with two party-preferred support for the Coalition tumbling to 48 per cent since the September election….

    Nearly three-quarters of voters — 72 per cent — believe Mr Abbott’s debt tax is a “broken promise”…One senior government source insisted that Mr Abbott “hates the idea’’ of the deficit levy but can’t see another way to spread the pain on to high income earners…

    Despite the PM’s moves to quell a backbench revolt over paid maternity leave by capping payouts at $50,000, the Galaxy poll also found 65 per cent of voters disagreed with the scheme in the current budgetary environment.”

    :grin:

  9. What about the poll that was published in the Sydney edition of ‘mX’ on 2 May 2014? ‘mX’ is an afternoon newspaper given away at railway stands, aimed at Generation Y. A poll they conducted through their smartphone app found 15% would vote for the Greens, 16% would vote for other minor parties or independents, 34% would vote for the Liberal or National Party, and 35% would vote for the Labor Party.

  10. And Morgan drops a 55 ALP (on respondent-allocated preferences – it’s 53.5 on previous-election preferences).

    That’d give them 90 to 95 seats, based on the state figures.

  11. “If a Federal Election were held today the ALP would win easily (55%, up 3% over the past two weeks) over the L-NP (45%, down 3%) according to today’s multi-mode Morgan Poll.”

    O Anthony, where is thy mandate?

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