8.35 am
Things are happening faster than I can keep up with. Isobel Redmond gone; Campbell Newman a pariah in his own flood-fouled heartland; Ted Baillieu on notice; Craig Thomson arrested, stripped and shamed; his lawyer suing Barry O’Farrell for a joke about nakedness; Tony Abbott self-immolated by his proud refusal to keep funding schoolkids; Chris Evans and Nicola Roxon abruptly quitting; Tony Sheldon bagging Labor; Moses Obeid cornholed by his own recorded voice; floods and bushfires devastating towns and lives; and it is only two and a half days since Gillard, surprising her Cabinet, ‘called’ a Yom Kippur election and incensed world Jewry and flabbergasted everyone. Things are in overdrive as they were in November 1975, before the Sacking, when Khemlani came to town. I feel at a loss to predict things for the first time in a long while.
Yesterday I was confident the strip-search of Craig would lose Abbott, his principal public tormentor, more female votes and Nielsen would show Labor on 50 on Monday. But I don’t know now. I await Chris Evans’ press conference with trembling interest.
It may be that Gillard has made a Rudd-like mistake, and not consulted her colleagues enough, and they are ropeable now. I’m not sure. Headlines are erasing previous headlines almost hourly, and nothing is predictable any more.
If Thomson sues O’Farrell, it is uncharted waters. He can then sue Abbott, Pyne, Brandis, The Daily Telegraph, Paul Murray, Andrew Bolt, and they will have to shut up about him. Or will they? More to come.
2.25 pm
What a difference an hour makes. The going of Evans and Roxon makes human sense now, and timing of it tactical sense, and the coming of Dreyfus and two men of Prime Ministerial stature, Clare and Kelly, wipes out much if not all of the negative backwash of Thomson’s arrest and pernicious theft of ice cream and leaves the tories without defenses in economic policy (where’s the money to come from? which hundred thousand breadwinners get the sack?) and facing debacle at Katter’s big kindly hands in Queensland. The LNP will be, I assess, a three-year wonder and the Liberals will not see power federally for ten or tweny years.
The Nielson Poll on Monday will have Labor on 49 or 50 and all will be well. I’m off to Zero Dark Thirty. More later.
7.10 pm
Zero Dark Thirty is an offence to human reason. See above.
Name:
Could this be a case of the rats sinking the ship?
How often has it seemed that things couldn’t get more shambolic it then doubles. Spineless house, it’s amoebic. Can’t help but wonder Gillard will remain, patting it around again in another sort of shape.
A whirling maelstrom indeed, resembling the tornadoes that hit central QLD for the first time ever in the recent floods.
Where to start?
The Resignations seems a good place.
I don’t know much about these two; were they peeved that Jules didn’t consult them about the election date; or was it that or was there a list of hidden grievances we know nothing of?
Were they always intending to? Why?
Or are they just the proverbial rats deserting a sinking ship?
A serious blow in either case when Labor needs every vote it can get; untried candidates in crucial electorates doesn’t help the cause, nor does the appearance of panic and disorder.
More questions than answers, I’m afraid.
Well … Mike Kelly in the litmus seat of Eden Monaro is staying on, and accepting, amazingly, a Cabinet position suitable to him, a war hero, in Defence. Simon Crean, 66, and Bob Carr, 65, are staying on. Kevin Rudd is staying on. Tanya Plibersek, despite three children, is staying on. Thomson and Slipper are tyrying to stay on. Windsor, Wilkie, Katter and Windsor, all Gillard allies, are staying on.
What, precisely, are you talking about?
What, precisely, are yountalking about?
I was referring to Chris and Nicola’s seats only; I am worried that the margins for error are so small that such things, normally insignificant might have a bad effect.
If I am wrong I would gladly learn better.
While we’re at it, the Captain Catholic cuts the Schoolkids Bonus and the Media are silent as fishes.
Should Kevin Rudd lay his dirty plebeian hand on the Sacred Profits of Gina Rinehart the whole shop of them shrieks as if they were having limbs removed with rusty blades.
Do you think they might not have the best interests of the Australian people at heart?
Just a thought.
First, forget the Nielson poll. After these extraordinary events nobody will (nor should they) pay any attention to it no matter what it says.
What ALP heavies think is all that counts right now. And certain caucus members. If the ‘equal-time’ law is actually enforceable (surely not) for a call on the election date so far out, then just another minor – well maybe not so minor if that is right – blunder to go on one side which, as Sam Spade puts it, “But look at the number of them”.
We seem to know what Sheldon generally thinks:-
“The morality-free, managerialist, Machiavellian model of politics pioneered in NSW from the early 1990s onwards has gone too far,” but that reform is for the more long term. Not for today.
While I think that any challenge to Gillard is either imminent (because it has to be) or will never happen, out of the gloom comes opportunity for Julia Gillard. If, as is being touted, Roxon has gone because she couldn’t accept changes forced to her terrible anti-discrimination laws, now is the opportunity to make the most of it and turn this into a positive. Apart from the expected delay of drastic media changes and the appropriate death of Finkelstein recommendations, use the Roxon departure to scrap the insidious laws against ‘offending’ or ‘insulting’ everywhere , along with everything else and, quite properly, as would be obvious shown by her ratting on the party for that reason, blame Roxon and show a more enlightened attitude by rolling back the nanny state.
For anyone who might be interested….
These are merely my assessments based on my life’s experience, agree/disagree as you will. Plus a suggestion. I got the Sheldon quote from the paper and the suggested Roxon ‘reason’ for resignation from TV.
Well my assessment based on my life’s experience are that your insights are based on bottomless sycophancy to the Big End of Town, a passionate desire to see Federal Labor self-destruct and a fat pay-cheque from whatever nasty Right-wing subversive organisation has been misguided enough to employ you.
Prove I lie.
M Ryutin suggests a moment’s petulance, not a daughter’s life story, is the cause of Roxon going, and with his ‘just forget about’ mantra shows himself, once again, to be a Liberal Party or CIA operative on a wage working too many hours to be anything else.
I am coming to despise him, and I ask him, once again, to say what he does for a living.
I will save time by saying here what I think about Gerard Henderson. He is an old-style Liberal Party, Menzies-era- anchored type who is making his living off his think tank and from whatever TV and newspaper appearances he can get paid for. He also gets upset if he is ever denied these appearances and doesn’t seem to forget it (I remember him whinging about missing out on a smh spot and has had a go at the ABC too from memory). He also is a serial quoter of other peoples sayings – he must have a huge library of them – and uses them to good effect at times. I am not sure that many people return the favour to him. I read his media watch dog when someone reminds me that it is out. That’s it.
As for your rather bitter response I can only say again:-
“It’s your blog Bob”. Just say the word. Now. Nothing more is needed.
I must say that I am happy to have been able to post here for a while. Maybe I CAN make some money out of this. I will let you know how it goes (and you will also9 have a good horse laugh when I finally let you know how paranoid the person currently using the name “macsporan” is).
Say how you make your money.
Busking with a mouth organ in Kirra, perhaps.
Investments paid for with money previously earned from the sweat of my brow.
Wow. Apparently the worst thing The Pope’s Best Friend has ever done is be ‘old-style’ and ‘whine’.
Faint damns indeed for a creep you has not only been wrong about virtually everything except the time of day; but has been willing to feed the tender youth of Australia into whatever meat-grinder the Pentagon is running at the time.
Makes you wonder about Friend Rytalin, doesn’t it?
Investments in what? Earnings from where?
Much as I love an optimist and usually am one, today I find myself wondering whether Thomson the outcast isn’t slightly more loyal to Labor’s cause than these two soon to be former senior ministers.
I agree with any analysis that says Roxon’s legislation was overreaching, though I’m less sure what Evans’ motivation for going was.
As for Gerard Henderson whose name seems to have come up again, I wouldn’t micturate in his ear if his brains were on fire. He has the sole saving grace of being marginally less odious than Alan Jones, though between them they appear to generate a quantity of loose stool water capable of keeping a small sewage far occupied indefinitely.
Hope I wasn’t unclear
Once again, how do you know all this?
Or are you just making it up?
Oh yeah, I remember, you’re just making it up.
I admire your grasp of mouldy Rightist cliches by the way; can I have a copy of your playbook?
But this is the weekend.
You’d better stop posting now; Gerard doesn’t like it when you clock up too much overtime.
Now run and play.
For your information, I posted a link to the section of the constitution covering casual Senate vacancies onto the thread where it came up.
Yeah, yeah.
What’s your view of Gerard Henderson? Good man, is he?
Think with your head and not your heart, Bob. Labor has problems that are structurally so deep that nothing but a totally catharthic reappraisal of all its internal processes will address the dysfunction. It goes beyond the road map (disregarded, in any case) devised by Labor elders in the past. They must look at the inconsistency between what ideals they espouse, and the parasites that they permit to both influence their party and exploit the unknowing public.
Until this is done Labor cannot claim any high moral ground over its opponents. They are not the only political party to be afflicted in this way. But this stuff just works its way to the surface until it endangers the whole of the body politic.
Gee, no high ground, you say. Seems not getting fifteen thousand extra to educate the kids is okay with everybody.
And going to the WMD war.
And saying Medicare is ‘unaffordable’.
There is much truth in what you say, but Labor is not going to self-destruct for the benefit of the Tory Concern-Trolls in the middle of an election campaign.
Today the struggle.
And Labor will always have the moral high ground over the Tories: a corrupt idealist can mend his ways: a corporate ghoul can only suck blood, crush hope and desolate the earth.
macsporan,
Of course it won’t happen in the middle of an election campaign. Although I believe seats could be saved if Labor had a strategist good enough and courageous enough to attempt a genuine mea culpa, while at the same time articulating the hopes and needs of the electorate. Oh – and a reaffirmation of the primacy of decency in public life would also help.
But they do not appear to have such a strategist. Certainly, I don’t see that McTernan is it.
If Craig Thomson has sued Fatty O’Back-Pedal, I eagerly await to see the efforts and results of discovery by Mr Thomson’s counsel.
It will be devastating.
Unfortunately another nail in the Labor election coffin. There is no way Labor can regain govt unless Abbott holds up a bank. I hope Labor has something BIG on Abbott in the bottom drawer for the last week of the campaign. Your $50 bet with me on the election result is looking more shakier by the day Bob.
It seem eight Labs and six Tories are retiring this election.
The numbers are roughly equal but there are no front-benchers among the Tories; the scent of office, I suppose.
Are these numbers unusual?
Do they portend the Breaking of the Nations?
Probably not.
Here are Howard’s lot who jumped ship after the 2007 election:-Ellison,Vaile, Downer, Nelson, McGauren, Anderson, Costello,Chris Pearce, Petro Georgiou, David Hawker,Turnbull,Kay Hull, Robert Hill
Great names these; I often lie awake at night silent tears flowing, wondering what has become of them.
Well stupid fucking Rudd gave a heap of them jobs….when Abbott is PM can U imagine him giving any Labor people a gig? Like hell!
I was practicing the gentle art of sarcasm.
I wish the whole gang to the Devil.
While I don’t think you’re a Concern-Troll like some of these others, I don’t think you’re the sharpest knife in the draw either; just like a Wombat really.
Keep doing your thing, my friend.
……but I am sharp enough to discern between practise and practice my friend!
macsporan comes out and throws a left hook, Wombat slightly rattled, returns a devastating counter right uppercut, just on the bell.
macsporan stumbles back to his seat in the corner but not finished yet. He takes the full 2 minutes to recover, ready for the next round.
This fight is going to please the punters.
I don’t smoke.
macsporan has raised a salient point. What of the Tories who’ll be retiring?
Excellent. And when!, and under what circumstances? Given, also, what Abbott has said about carrying his team through as is.
Rather be ALP on this, than t’other.
With one bound he was free.
Details here:
http://afr.com/p/national/roxon_evans_lift_labor_retirees_AT2yBfKPyT3kaAPOZ76HRK
but I stand corrected: apparently nine Tories are retiring, one more than Labs eight.
No doubt they are part of some dark conspiracy to…um…er…who knows…retire?
Note though that the headline did not emphasize this simple and obvious fact.
Ah the Capitalist Press so predictable you can predict them.
A number of events in a short time. But I doubt that any of them are game-changers.
The outgoing Senators will be in the Senate until 30 June 2014, given a September election. Evans has been there since 1993, enough for anyone.
Roxon is a surprise, at first glance. She had to shepherd through the tobacco advertising issue, possibly at great personal cost. She has a child, and a life outside politics and perhaps the reasons are actually personal reasons.
It seems to me that the PM has requested her Ministers to commit to the next three years, and some have not been able to do so.
We thank them for their excellent public service over many years.
Is that the ‘Royal’ we?
Bit of a moot point calling career pollies public servants I would have thought.
Is it not public service? What then – are they there to line their pockets? What does a top level public servant get – probably more money than the Minister.
They give up what may well be excellent careers elsewhere. Surely it is good fun to always bucket them, but most of them are probably dedicated to serving the country and the cause, by their own lights.
Not all public servants are excellent.
But we can rest assured they would be well paid regardless.
A long bow you draw there DQ suggesting the unselfish sacrifice of foregoing careers elsewhere. Check out the CV’s.
Alas, the lights flicker and dim, the party’s over.
A long bow you draw there DQ suggesting the unselfish sacrifice of foregoing careers elsewhere. Check out the CV’s.
Not as long a bow as your implied claim to encyclopedic knowledge of ‘public servants’.
What have you read all their CV’s have you?
You must have magical sources of knowledge like Rytalin does of ALP internal politics.
Are you perhaps one of the Tory intellectual giants come in from Rytalin’s amazing blog, to give him a hand?
How sweet.
Dear macsporan,
give it a rest.
You are starting to grate with your incessant dribble and god knows there’s been plenty of it.
Are you on holiday with plenty of time on your hands or something?
I know you have an aversion to wanting to understand but really I urge you to have a go.
The party I support, the ALP, has a tradition of robust debate.
If in fact you are not the control troll that you accuse everyone else of being, you make claim to being a supporter of the ALP.
Are you?
You can read can’t you?
In between hammering your keyboard read the ‘work’ history of the members that make up the cabinet for beginners.
You don’t have to be magical or Harry Potter to do that.
You turn up here out of nowhere at about the same time Rytalin started getting into trouble.
You do not, as far as I can tell support the ALP.
You have had nothing nice to say about them so far.
They are not public servants and there’s something wrong with their CV’s, which you haven’t read.
And I’m the troll.
Yeah right.
Here long before you.
You can’t read, enough said.
Go and gloat over what you believe to be the coming defeat of the party you claim to supportsomewhere else, then.
If we deduct Senators, who won’t be going anywhere for another couple of years, the score looks like six-all.
Definitely not anything to write home about save that two of the Labor people are Front-benchers and none of the Tories are.
Although here’s a point of interest: many of the retiring Tories are ‘moderates’ whatever that may be in Toryland; maybe they only want to hang and draw Trade Unionists, and omit the quartering on humanitarian grounds.
Obviously these chaps are finding the company of Tony Tea-Party a little too much to bear.
Pity, there are so few moderate left on the Right.
Oh well, the crazier they are the harder they’ll be to get past the punters; and that has to be good.
Much as I’d like to put a brave face on things, losing one minister is bad, but two in one day seems bloody careless to the best of us.
Some suggest that Roxon may be miffed that her overreaching legislation had been tampered with, or as you say that she has just decided to prioritise motherhood for a while. But she didn’t say that when you stood at the election for a three year term, and nor did Evans whose departure seems entirely unprompted. It is almost as if the only question remains is if they saw the writing on the wall or whether they’ve put it there?
And it is a pity!
Even those of us who’ve been less than sure of Gillard often tend to want anyone but Abbott!
Amen Brother!
Why is it overreaching?
Who says so : the Tobacco companies, their lobby and their rent boys!
Are you being disingenuous Doug? I meant the new legislation she was working on that wanted to lump offence in with discrimination. We were talking about this at length quite recently so I wonder how you don’t recognise that was what I meant….
If that is what you meant, why didn’t you say so?
The latest feedback suggests to me that the offending “offensive” may well be deleted from the Bill.
This particular legislation has a long way to go yet, but even in its present form it is hardly a “Don’t do it or I’ll resign” earth-shattering issue.
Maybe I just assumed you were up with current events.
Yes some of the “feedback” I’ve also read suggested that Roxon may have been peeved at these changes to remove offence from her Bill.
I do agree that that most of us would have thought there was more to it than mere petulance over those few changes. And whatever that is may also explain why Evans decided to depart.
I felt a year ago Roxon was going. I remember her talking about not seeing her kid. She also wants to have another one. Evans … well he was always gonna go after he lost all of that weight. You don’t do it for nothing.
It’s possible she’s pregnant already but, at forty-five and nine months, it’s a little late to start.
Oh, I don’t know, Bob – my mother was nearly 44 when I was born, and medical science has moved along since then! If the spirit is willing she may well have another child or two.
Don’t let her, DQ!
I did some back of the brain calcs. the other day and estimated your age to be around ~50 based on a comment you’d made… something at the age of 17 and a lapse of 30 years.
That makes mom nearly 94! Too old, mate. Let her be…
She may have frozen eggs stored up against the day, and a friend willing to carry them to term.
O brave new world.
That reading did occur to me, Canguro, after posting the reply; but I thought “I wonder which smart-arse will bother to comment?”
Now I know!
But even Bob’s suggestion (below?) would be difficult as she died in 1998. Bless her.
A further article from the AFR for your consideration.
http://www.afr.com/p/national/fun_may_be_just_starting_for_gillard_OMSCttge5wMIUtZzK2wAGP
All what you’d expect to find in the AFR, but honestly the part near the end where they say Abbott is already calling for an early election…, I mean to say the man has done little else but call for an early election for the past two years!
Two of the stars chucking it in, Thomson arrested, and now Obeid caught with his hand in the cookie jar.
Even if it turns out both are innocent as swans we can look forward to months of hijinks, thrills, spill and assorted bad publicity.
Short of Jules going mad in front of the National Press Club and weeping hysterically she’s being followed everywhere by Jesuits and Freemasons, it is hard to imagine the election getting off to a worse start.
Bob are reports about your script about the knifing of Rudd true?
It would be a corker.
Yes but I’m writing it with my True Believers co-writer Stephen Ramsey.
And my casting would be Rachel Griffiths as Gillard and either Jeremy Sims or Anthony Hayes or Matthew Newton as Rudd. Guy Pearce as Abbott, Ewen Leslie as Costello, Miranda Otto as Maxine, Simon Baker as Shorten, Brendan Cowell as Paul Howes, Con the Fruiterer as Beazley …
Any other suggestions? Anybody?
It surely couldn’t omit the most important part: Bill Ludwig?
And Guy Pearce wouldn’t be in danger of making Abbott too likeable? Why not Felix Williamson?
Worth noting that the legendary(in his own lunch time) macsporan is the writer of nearly 31% of the posts on this thread and the one immediately above.
Verbose much?
I agree. He is a public nuisance. No balanced debate just high drama. It’s politics Macsporan. Get over it.
Hello dear, and who might you be?
I agree with you.
I am a bad man and do only bad things, but I would be happy to take some dullness lessons from you if you have the time.
I am new to this good company and I could be wrong.
Can anyone vouch for this guy?