We may expect one of Murdoch’s ‘funnily enough’ Newspolls tomorrow. Funnily enough, despite Carr’s UN coup, and despite Gillard’s world famed ‘misogynist’ haymaker, despite the swing to Labor in the ACT and the Liberals’ leadership mud-wrestle in South Australia, and the growing detestation of Newman in Queensland in this, the week when the Literary Awards occurred in spite of his abolition of them, despite the vanishing Australia-wide of the Carbon Tax bogeyman and spifflication of the Nauru Solution (more boat people come in a week now than in the whole Howard era), funnily enough, funnily enough, paradoxically, amazingly, the Liberals have gained ground and Abbott is once again the preferred Prime Minister, or nearly, and the Coalition is on 57.
It will be a lie, of course, or a tweaking. All you need to know about Murdoch’s minions’ ‘methodology’ (I’m Bill O’Reilly and this is the no-spin zone) is that in the Fox Newspoll Romney always does better than in any other poll, on average, and Obama worse. Always.
This can only mean that Fox Newspoll is corrupt; it is hard, comrade, to read the evidence in any other way.
Does this mean O’Shannessy’s Newspoll, out tomorrow and ringing, as always, no mobile phones and doorknocking nobody anywhere, will show Gillard losing, not gaining votes after the ‘sexism’ donnybrook that so excited the gaping planet? Would O’Shannessy dare?
Of course he would. He doesn’t like it, but he has to. He has, like Don Draper, a customer to serve. Newspoll has I think a CEO for no other reason. Why does a number counting agency need a CEO? To tweak the figures? Massage them? Bodgy up the samples? Heaven forbid.
Of course he would.
Whether he will is another question.
He may want Gillard to survive, and be therefore easier to beat than Rudd or Carr or Shorten. Or he may want Rudd, as PM, floundering, as always, to answer what happened at Scores, and why he went there, a tactic that worked so well against Mike Rann.
The actual figures, 50-50, we won’t see till Nielsen, the honest poll, brings them out next Monday.
Prove that I lie.
PS. Hmm. Nielsen has come out a week early, with such figures, 52-48, as may scare O’Shannessy into honesty this week, and render all of the above unlikely. I will let it stand, however. We need always to be reminded of Murdoch’s past wickedness lest we be oversurprised by its return. And so it goes.
Name:
Or we could read today’s Fairfax/Nielsen in the Age or SMH and take a little heart.
The Nielsen Poll is just part of a continuing trend. The polls are correcting towards the true position. Not there yet; give them time. Abbott is dead-man-walking.
The front page headline in The Australian today says “Labor could Win under Kevin Rudd: Poll.”
Murdoch must be messing with Gillards mind. Taunting her supporters. Offering a glimmer of hope and then dashing it. Cruel but I like it.
Mark Latham once wisely said, the only people who like Kevin Rudd are the people that have never met him. Wise words.
Please Labor. Hang onto Gillard so Abbotts victory can be totally comprehensive. (By the way Bob, Newman’s support base has firmed. Check his latest polling. People like strong leaders, even when busy sacking nurses,)
This poll, showing Rudd’s greater popularity and better outcome for the Labor party with him as leader, was leaked from a left-wing union. Surely nobody say this poll is biased, even if The Australian’s motives are always questionable. And who cares if the only people who like Kevin Rudd are those who have never met him – that definition covers nearly all Australian voters. The personality of the “real Kevin” is therefore irrelevant.
Well, let’s see if those who don’t know him yet want Carr more.
Bob, can you tell me which polling organisation calls mobile phones or undertakes Australia-wide dooorknocking?
I have no doubt you’re right about Newspoll, but curious to know if any other polling organisation calls mobile telephones. I’m sure it’s been raised here before that pollsters cannot call mobiles – is this correct?
Morgan does phones and doorknocks. In America, Gallup rings mobile phones.
It is against the law here, but it means the polls are useless, and the law should be changed. Or doorknocking reinstituted.
Shad is a cunt who rejoiced at the murder of a baby I know and his brothers and sisters and parents and will never be printed here again.
You shouldn’t tell lies Bob. You just can’t manipulate me aka Allan Jones your opposite number
Don’t worry Bob your following will return much like the sponsors a la AJ. especially after the election. They will unfortunately have much sulking and anger to vent. I hope they correctly apportion the blame in part to the likes of you and yours.
Weren’t you going to start your own polling company, Bob? You seemed quite determined about it when you first declared your intention a few months ago.
You’ve been whinging the same almighty whinge about the same fucking thing since approximately the end of the Crimean War.
Boring.
Read something else then.
Read Gerard Henderson on the Cold War, the Petrovs and the DLP.
More your speed, by the look of you.
Foolish Old Man.
Oh dear, did you get your scrotum caught in your fly again?
Thanks Bob – I guess this means all polls suffer from the same accuracy issues and that Labor’s vote is, as you say, probably far higher than the polls are showing.