O’Shannessy is working hard to keep Labor down to 45. This week, changing the rules (again), he refrained from ringing on Sunday night, when everyone is home, a Newspoll first, did not list Katter’s party, at 7 percent, probably, or its likely Labor-favouring preferences, did not count a million ‘undecided’ or ‘refused’ (hang up when a foreign voice answers) and counted only 1146 votes not the 1200 that (probably) answered, sometimes grumpily.
Even then he couldn’t get Abbott’s approval above 31, the lowest ever for a Liberal leader in the sixty-eight years of the party’s existence, or above Gillard’s, 39 to his 38, meaning seven million eight hundred and twelve thousand adult Australians don’t want him as Prime Minister.
The actual figures, as O’Shannessy well knows, are Labor 49 and Coalition 51, and with Carr as leader would be Labor 53 and Coalition 47. No mobile phones were rung, no Friday night filmgoers, no Saturday morning soccer mums, no Saturday night bar staff, no Sunday morning bushwalkers or churchgoers or cricketers, and no-one at all on Sunday night, a Newspoll first.
He cheats with his every breath, does O’Shannessy, to please — as I suppose he must — the great cheat Murdoch, that unfit person to run an international company, and Labor staffers believe him, and so it goes.
I invite him to reply to this, or let it stand unchallenged.
Name:
Bob, this joke is wearing thin. Monty Python did it much better and funnier.
Both Galaxy and Essential (the latter from a Labor leaning organisation) show the 2PP at 56-44.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/
Neither rang mobile phones, of which there are more each day and fewer landlines, or distribute Katter preferences in other than the 2010 flows when there was no Katter party at all.
If you believe Abbott is on 31 and his party on 55 can you tell me where the extra three million voters who don’t want him come from?
What Monte Python sketch is that?
What sketch is this? How about the sketch where people vote for the party and not the leader, which (If I’m not mistaken) was the line run by the ALP faithful when Kevin Rudd was rolled.
Reader1 is correct Bob. How can you keep peddling this ridiculous line? EVERY poll from EVERY source has Labor in the doldrums. But instead of accepting the facts, you keep inventing ridiculous explanations and excuses.
Bob it’s time for you to wake up and face reality-The majority of Australians do NOT share your opinion of this government.
What will it take for you to finally admit when you’re wrong?
And what good would that do?
“And what good would that do?”
What good would what do?
Admitting I was wrong.
What good would it do?
Specify.
You would earn a bit of respect from those who have known you a long time but who now despair
So I have no respect left then?
Answer this carefully.
Do not lie.
Perhaps a little but rapidly diminishing. As one who had read most of your books I regret that.
On the poll thing, you are like one of those climate change skeptics. “All those who have studied the field are wrong and I am the only one in the whole country who is right”
In whom is it rapidly diminishing? Name two people.
If you cannot, you are lying.
And are banned for life.
I hope you are joking, Bob, because if not you are a dope. And I don’t think you are.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Knight_(Monty_Python)
I do not joke. No by-elections have been lost by this government, no bills defeated, no members expelled from parliament. A period longer than the administration of Julius Caesar lies before it. Bob Carr wins victories every week. The Abbott offshore policy is falling apart. Baillieu is in diabolical trouble and O’Farrell already a joke. The Nationals voted to take money from cigarette companies yesterday. A tax cut comes in next week. Abbott’s approval level is one from which no leader has ever won government.
What are you talking about?
You claim to know more about how opinion polls should be done and are done than all the people who have made careers out of doing them.
Sounds dopey to me.
Because the situation has changed. Half of all young people don’t have home phones. They have mobile phones. Which are not rung. Which means one or two percent goes in the polls to the Liberals, who have home phones, and are older.
Okay?
They do not ring a lot of people they should ring. Okay?
More people each day. They do not ring. More and more people each day who vote Labor or Green they do not ring.
Okay?
I’m 27 Bob. I currently vote Liberal.
I doubt I’m the only young person to do so either.
I didn’t say you were. I only say what is well known, that more people of 27 vote Labor or Green than people of 67. And people of 67 are the ones they’re ringing. Because people of 27 don’t have the phones they ring.
Are you getting it now?
Or just committed to lying?
Again Bob, I have a home phone too. And I know I’m not the only one.
You’re making generalisations. Yes the general demographics may skew somewhat in the direction you indicate, but it is *not* a hard and fast rule as you seem to imply.
More to the point, these pollsters are professionals. They’re aware of the differences between demographics, and they strive to make sure a proper cross-section of society is polled.
There would be more than enough people across the nation who fit the demographic you speak of-Young and with a landline- for the purposes of polling.
And finally, ALL the main polling organisations are getting similar results. They can’t all be pandering to your conspiracy theories.
The fact is, your excuses have no solid basis in fact. You have zero proof of your allegations of poll tampering.
I won’t accuse you of lying as you have falsley done to me, but I suspect some of the polling employees would have some strong things to say to you.
Of course they do. They use the same extinct method. And ‘rule out’ a million voters.
Come on.
Bob you are just plainly wrong. If this conspiracy existed as you claim, then the polls would not have predicted the last election result as they did. The polling demographics have not shifted so far in a mere two years.
Newspoll’s pre-election poll was a mere 0.1% out from the actual result. 0.1%!
This is not an organization that is manufacturing a result, no matter how much you may wish it to be the case.
Who says they used the same method on the day before election as they do now?
They need to be right on election day.
Any other day they need only to please Rupert.
Of course you have a home phone, you live with your mother at 27. Hundreds of thousands don’t.
You should get out more.
“you live with your mother at 27. ”
I’ve been out of home since 17 and currently own my own home.
You are a filthy liar Bob, spouting untruths with no proof beyond your own opinion.
You *own* your own home at 27? How can you be typical of anything? Own? Wow. So … you can speak up for undecided 27 year olds, can you?
What a liar you are. What a fool.
No, still ignorant and dopey. You are making yourself look foolish. I don ‘t understand why because you are not. Or were not once.
An interesting list- But meaningless in the grand scheme of things. Here we go:
By-elections? No by-elections have been *won* by this government either. That must mean they’re doomed! Right?
Bills defeated? They would have had a few bills defeated except for the fact that they decided not to go through with them once it was clear they didn;t have the numbers. Isn’t that the pertinent point?
No members expelled from parliament- Well whoopy do. This has only happened *once* in history, nearly 100 years ago, to Hugh Mahon (A member of the ALP incidently). This is not an achievement.
Comparison to Caesar- This is what you’ve been reduced to? Lasting longer than Caesar? How is that in anyway relevant?
Refugee policy- The only policy faling apart currently is the one that the ALP instigated 4 years ago.
VIC politics- Being from NSW, I have little knowledge of this and no comment to make.
O’Farrell- Still rated ahead of the NSW ALP, and has little to do with the Federal situation anyway.
The Nationals funding arrangements- Not a huge core issue in the minds of voters, especially considering many of them do not live in National contested seats.
Tax cuts- Howard had lots of these too. Right up to the end. They didn’t save him, and they won’t save the ALP.
Abbott’s approval level- Please see my above comment about leaders and parties.
Party votes win elections. Leader popularity is simply one of many factors.
If that’s the best you’ve got Bob, the ALP is in serious trouble.
Why then did they pick up half a million votes — according to Newspoll — in a month? And why did Abbott get — according to Newspoll — the second lowest approval rating for an Opposition Leader in our history? A quarter of a million fewer votes than a month ago? And why did Abbott — according to Newspoll — lose three quarter of a million votes in six weeks?
Answer this, you dull scared propagandising sluggard, or I will ban you.
Scared Bob? Of what? You? Don’t flatter yourself.
And ban threats for having a contrary opinion, oh dear.
As I said before, it’s up to you whether you can stomach someone who challenges your views without resorting to threats and namecalling. If you feel the need to ban me, go right ahead. I’m sure I’ll find the strength to carry on.
In the meantime, to answer your question, these polls do have a margin of error (3% I believe).
As such, small fluctuations from month to month are nothing out of the ordinary.
When we have a change of 3 or more points either way, then there will be something of interest to talk about.
So Labor could be on 48 then?
Say yes.
Theoretically? Yes. likely to be the case? No.
These results tend to average out over time. Anyone with a passing understandingof statistics knows it’s highly unlikely that you’ll constantly get rogue polls that lop 3% off the ALP vote however many polls in a row.
The results have been fairly consistent Bob. It’s time to start accepting the figures are accurate.
(P.s I’ll also note that Labor being on 48 would still put them in a losing position, albeit one far easier to make up)
Let us then imagine they are on 48. And Carr or Shorten or Plibersek becomes Prime Minister.
What will they be on then?
I would suggest 48 still.
Labor’s problems are not just about Gillard, it’s about their policies. First and foremost being the Carbon tax which is widely reviled.
They need tomake changes in this area too to make up ground.
So there is no ‘Gillard Factor’?
Answer carefully.
Do not lie.
You have twenty-four hours, and if you stay silent you are banned for life.
O’Farrell has nothing to do with the federal situation? I would have thought he was a trial run for it. He like Hockey and Abbott comes from Sydney. He like them promised a surplus budget and cannot deliver it. He is proposing to privatise everything that moves. He is tearing down the monorail, and the Arts.
Cigarettes is not an issue? That is a lie. I do not print liars.
Retract it, or be banned for life.
‘Whoopy do’ was not the way Abbott reacted when Craig was not expelled, nor Slipper. What the fuck do you mean ‘whoopy do’?
You are so enmeshed in untruth you are beginning to disgust me.
Twenty-four hours, and then, oblivion.
“You are so enmeshed in untruth you are beginning to disgust me.”
This coming from the man who refuses to believe any polls that do not give a good result for the ALP, MUST be some sort of artificial lie concoted by an old man halfway around the world.
You are living in such a bubble of denial and wacky conspirtacy theories, I am sincerely afraid for your sanity.
Ciggarrets are not a major voter issue. There is not a whole swathe of voters thinking to themselves ‘Well I like all the nationals policies, but they accept donations from cigarette companies so…I’ll vote Greens instead’
Federal voters are going to vote between the Federal ALP and the Federal Coalition. O’Farell is a minor consideration. There are much bigger issues at play.
“He like them promised a surplus budget and cannot deliver it.”
I think you mean like the Federal ALP. They have yet to deliver a surplus.
And ‘Whoopy do’ is because the very act of expulsion is so rare to be almost unprecedented. That to avoid it is not a paticulary difficult feat. As such I ascribe no weight to this ‘acheivement’.
And Bob I find your threats to be tiresome. I have my opinions.
You have yours. For example You state categorically without proof, that the polls have been tampered with. Is this statement a lie?
Now you can print whatever you like on your blog. And you can choose to enforce whatever hypocritical rules you wish.
But I will have my opinions and if you feel you don’t like them, and/or cannot handle them then ban me.
Either do it or don’t do it. I’m sick of responding to your constant childish and petulant threats.
You are banned for life, effective a day from now.
I invited O’Shannessy to respond to my allegations of tampering, and he thus far has not. He has responded before. This means he is preparing his response, and finding it diffucult, or has not got round to it or will not because it is true.
What I object to in what you have said is they are sometimes ‘opinions’ and permissible but sometimes lies, as in the idea that tobacco is not an issue. If it were not an issue there would be tobacco advertising on television and tobacco companies sponsoring, as they used to, big sporting events. So what you say is a lie and I do not print persistent lies.
You have twenty-four hours, till 8 am tomorrow , if you want to respond to this and plead your liar’s cause or apologise for lying idiotically and persistently.
I am trying to be merciful but you are making it hard.
Don’t 100% know how these things work myself but I’d have thought if these figures related to who’d win in an election then with distribution of preferences Labor stand a far better chance than I felt they might.
Of the Katter Party’s 8 percent, 18 percent in Queensland, Labor would get 6 percent, 14 percent in Queensland. This would put Labor near victory even now. But O’Shannessy in his ‘redistributions’ (this is why you have a CEO) has done it ‘according to the preference flow in 2010′ when there was no Katter Party and the preference flow from ‘Independents’ favoured the Coalition.
This is why you have a CEO. What else is he for?
I ask O’Shannessy to reply to this.
An indelible ‘Bulletin’ cover of the
90′s, pre his election featured John Howard at 18% approval polling – WHY DOES THIS MAN BOTHER?, the slug line.
Be afraid, be very afraid. The Oz electorate are not the brightest mob around.
Reply button appears to have vanished so I will post down here:
Your question: ‘So there is no ‘Gillard Factor’?
Of course there is. BUT, it is firmly tied to the ALP’s current policy position. The electorate’s dislike of Gillard can be accurately traced back to The Big Lie (the Carbon tax announcement).
That was when the polls started skydiving for Labor. And Gillard is the face of the Lie. That being said, if Gillard is removed but the Lie remains…the reason for Labor’s fall in the poll also remains.
It is no use to remove Gillard without removing that which made her so hated in the first place. Both Gillard’s removal *and* a policy change must occur for there to be a significant positive shift in the ALP vote.
Policy change to what? What eight policies?
What four?
I just explained it Bob. You need to pay closer attention.
You don’t need eight policy changes. You don’t need four. You only need one-The Carbon Tax.
That’s what’s killing the ALP.
That’s when the vote started to slide.
That’s what is keeping it where it is.
It doesn’t matter who the leader is. As long as the Carbon tax remains, so too will the dismal polling levels.
One policy will do, eh? And if another policy gives, say, free dental care to everybody the vote will not move?
Please answer this.
They cannot afford free dental care for everyone. And this is not a policy.
They could promise everyone a free car too. They haven’t (and most likely won’t).
Get back to me when it actually happens and we’ll talk.
In the meantime I’ll deal with what is, and not what Bob Ellis thinks could be.
And if they give twelve or eighteen hundred dollars to parents with schoolchildren that will make no difference? That is no fantasy. That *is*. And it’s happening now.
No difference, you say?
Come on, lie again.
Actually, I think the problem began when they rolled Rudd, then couldn’t say why.
After all, it wasn’t about policy. Gillard and Swan followed more or less the same policies he would have. A faint odour of unreality, and what was in some quarters perceived as mendacity, attached itself to the Government at that point.
The enthusiastic bloodbath earlier this year didn’t help either.
I agree, that this is where it started. (But the Carbon tax definety made things worse.)
Any move against Gillard, again without changing policy would be nothing more than a continuation of that same mistake that they made when they removed Rudd.
Thts why I dont believe Labor would see much (if any) significant improvement in the polls, and certainly not an election winning one.
Much? Any?
Or none?
And again we appear to have run out of space up there, so I will continue our discussion on polling results down here:
Bob you say that Newspoll *have* to be accurate close to the election, but they don’t have to be now. That the current results must be some sort of result artificially generated to please Murdoch.
This is ludicrous reasoning. In the absence of an election, how can you possibly tell the difference as to whether they’re polling accurately or pandering to your conspiracy theories?
From what I can see from your posts, you think that *every* bad poll you see for the ALP *must* be in error. You are mentally incapable of accepting the results. It’s sad to see such a ridiculous denial of facts.
It’s even more ridiculous when you consider Murdoch does NOT control the other polls. All of them give similar results. So your conspiracy theory does not work.
Banned for life. Twenty-four hours.
No, other polls have lately shown Labor on 47, enough to win from with a good campaign, but they, too, have distributed the preferences as they flowed in 2010 before the Katter Party existed and they too rang no mobile phones.
And they too were wrong, but sincerely wrong. I can hack it when Labor is doing badly. I had twenty-three years of Menzies, Holt, McEwen, Gorton and McMahon. I accepted Labor would lose badly in NSW and Queensland. I predicted accurately its narrow loss in Victoria and hairsbreadth wins in Tasmania and South Australia. I usually get election results right, thirty-five thus far, twenty nine within three seats, ten dead wrong. What I do not do is gormlessly accept what Murdoch tells me is so, that an Iraq War will halve the price of oil, and so on.
You are not so wise, and much more loyal.
And I spew you out of my mouth.
Begone.