I am flummoxed by the online reports of the Nielsen Poll, which show Labor losing two hundred and twenty thousand votes in the week that Abbott did his runner, and Carr spoke so effectively of Syria, and Pyne compared himself to a gazelle, and O’Farrell opened fire on koalas, and ended a thousand bus routes, or said he would; and it may be right, it may be right, and Labor is indeed so disesteemed it has no hope, no hope at all, and it should go back to Rudd, and ‘save the furniture’.
But it seems to me a little, well, premature.
Why no polls comparing Carr and Abbott, or Shorten and Abbott, or Albo and Abbott, or Plibersek and Abbott? Why only Rudd? He seems to be leaving parliament and going off to enjoy his millions. Why not now truly explore the leadership question?
I’ll go out and get the papers soon, and ponder things more closely.
Five hours later.
It looks as if Nielsen is behaving unfairly too. It shows Rudd beating Abbott 59 to 37, but the smh does not print this, only the Financial Review. Family First gets 2 percent, but Katter’s Australian Party, which gets more I would think, is unnamed under ‘other’, 4, and ‘Independent’, 6. No ‘refused’ or ‘don’t know’ are listed — for the first time I think in human history — and, yes, no mobiles called, no doors knocked; and a third of the respondents, on Thursday, out of the house at work or late-night shopping.
It shows a propensity to cheat, or to ‘weight the numbers’ I guess it is called, in the measurement also of sympathy for Craig Thomson. 37 percent called his persecution ‘reasonable’, 31 percent said it had ‘gone too far’, 16 percent that it had ‘not gone far enough’, and … where are the other 10 percent? ‘Undecided’, were they? ‘Too early to tell’? Gone. Erased. For the first time in human history, I’m certain of that. Abolished.
No ‘undecided’ for Nielsen. No way. Not any more. Gina’s on the board, or nearly, and she wants results.
Those numbers, put in, would have brought all us foulweather friends of Craig up to 41, a goodly, growing, brotherly number: six million adults thus far, and climbing. But no, they are not there. Erased. Gone to their Maker. Gone.
The missing Thursday numbers would probably explain the difference between Newspoll’s 45 and Nielsen’s 43 for Labor, two party preferred; and the lack of mobile phone calls would explain the difference between Newspoll’s 45 and the 47 there probably is in the final, invisible, unseen tabulation. Then you add in the Katter Factor, which gives Labor 1.5 more percent, which gets it to 48.5, and competitive. Maybe. Which means Labor now could win from here. Maybe.
Lord, I believe. Help thou mine unbelief.
With Rudd, or Carr, or Shorten, they could win easily. A Carr versus Abbott poll would be nice. But Nielsen is into cheating now, or whatever the word is, ‘tweaking’, and we won’t ever see one. Will we.
But … if it’s not …
If it’s not …
It shows a hundred and twenty thousand votes in a month have gone across to Labor, two party preferred, and one hundred and twenty thousand primary votes to Independents, and two hundred and forty thousand to the Greens. That’s three hundred and sixty thousand going to third parties in a month, or twelve thousand a day.
It shows, too, Abbott losing half a million friends in a month, or seventeen thousand a day.
Well, doesn’t it?
You can play a lot of games with poll figures, can’t you, you really can, even when the figures are real.
But if they’re not real …
What wickedness, old friend, what wickedness.
So … the drift in both polls is away from Abbott and towards Labor, two party preferred, and towards the likelihood of Labor’s friends Windsor, Thomson, Oakeshott, Bandt and Katter surviving, though not perhaps Wilkie. And, even at the slowest count, even under Gillard, Labor picked up a hundred and twenty thousand preferred votes in a month and there are fifteen months to go. If this rate were maintained we’d be competitive by October and landsliding by New Year’s Eve.
The rate won’t be uniform, of course, an economic swamping of Europe will bring Swan more votes, but it’s hard to see Abbott lasting beyond September.
How odd it is that in any anti-Gillard leadership survey her deputy, Swan, her Foreign Minister, Carr, her Industrial Relations Minister, Shorten, her Attorney-General, Roxon, her Regions Minister, Crean (ten years ago Leader himself), her most liked female rival, Plibersek, and her best parliamentary performer, Albo, are not mentioned. Only Rudd, who is bound to smash up the party and lose. Very odd. Very odd.
It’s never happened before in the history of polling, anywhere in the world.
And so it goes.