4.30 am
I am flummoxed by the online reports of the Nielsen Poll, which show Labor losing two hundred and twenty thousand votes in the week that Abbott did his runner, and Carr spoke so effectively of Syria, and Pyne compared himself to a gazelle, and O’Farrell opened fire on koalas, and ended a thousand bus routes, or said he would; and it may be right, it may be right, and Labor is indeed so disesteemed it has no hope, no hope at all, and it should go back to Rudd, and ‘save the furniture’.
But it seems to me a little, well, premature.
Why no polls comparing Carr and Abbott, or Shorten and Abbott, or Albo and Abbott, or Plibersek and Abbott? Why only Rudd? He seems to be leaving parliament and going off to enjoy his millions. Why not now truly explore the leadership question?
I’ll go out and get the papers soon, and ponder things more closely.
9.32 am
Five hours later.
It looks as if Nielsen is behaving unfairly too. It shows Rudd beating Abbott 59 to 37, but the smh does not print this, only the Financial Review. Family First gets 2 percent, but Katter’s Australian Party, which gets more I would think, is unnamed under ‘other’, 4, and ‘Independent’, 6. No ‘refused’ or ‘don’t know’ are listed — for the first time I think in human history — and, yes, no mobiles called, no doors knocked; and a third of the respondents, on Thursday, out of the house at work or late-night shopping.
It shows a propensity to cheat, or to ‘weight the numbers’ I guess it is called, in the measurement also of sympathy for Craig Thomson. 37 percent called his persecution ‘reasonable’, 31 percent said it had ‘gone too far’, 16 percent that it had ‘not gone far enough’, and … where are the other 10 percent? ‘Undecided’, were they? ‘Too early to tell’? Gone. Erased. For the first time in human history, I’m certain of that. Abolished.
No ‘undecided’ for Nielsen. No way. Not any more. Gina’s on the board, or nearly, and she wants results.
Those numbers, put in, would have brought all us foulweather friends of Craig up to 41, a goodly, growing, brotherly number: six million adults thus far, and climbing. But no, they are not there. Erased. Gone to their Maker. Gone.
The missing Thursday numbers would probably explain the difference between Newspoll’s 45 and Nielsen’s 43 for Labor, two party preferred; and the lack of mobile phone calls would explain the difference between Newspoll’s 45 and the 47 there probably is in the final, invisible, unseen tabulation. Then you add in the Katter Factor, which gives Labor 1.5 more percent, which gets it to 48.5, and competitive. Maybe. Which means Labor now could win from here. Maybe.
Lord, I believe. Help thou mine unbelief.
With Rudd, or Carr, or Shorten, they could win easily. A Carr versus Abbott poll would be nice. But Nielsen is into cheating now, or whatever the word is, ‘tweaking’, and we won’t ever see one. Will we.
Will we.
But … if it’s not …
If it’s not …
It shows a hundred and twenty thousand votes in a month have gone across to Labor, two party preferred, and one hundred and twenty thousand primary votes to Independents, and two hundred and forty thousand to the Greens. That’s three hundred and sixty thousand going to third parties in a month, or twelve thousand a day.
It shows, too, Abbott losing half a million friends in a month, or seventeen thousand a day.
Well, doesn’t it?
You can play a lot of games with poll figures, can’t you, you really can, even when the figures are real.
But if they’re not real …
What wickedness, old friend, what wickedness.
So … the drift in both polls is away from Abbott and towards Labor, two party preferred, and towards the likelihood of Labor’s friends Windsor, Thomson, Oakeshott, Bandt and Katter surviving, though not perhaps Wilkie. And, even at the slowest count, even under Gillard, Labor picked up a hundred and twenty thousand preferred votes in a month and there are fifteen months to go. If this rate were maintained we’d be competitive by October and landsliding by New Year’s Eve.
The rate won’t be uniform, of course, an economic swamping of Europe will bring Swan more votes, but it’s hard to see Abbott lasting beyond September.
10.14 am
How odd it is that in any anti-Gillard leadership survey her deputy, Swan, her Foreign Minister, Carr, her Industrial Relations Minister, Shorten, her Attorney-General, Roxon, her Regions Minister, Crean (ten years ago Leader himself), her most liked female rival, Plibersek, and her best parliamentary performer, Albo, are not mentioned. Only Rudd, who is bound to smash up the party and lose. Very odd. Very odd.
It’s never happened before in the history of polling, anywhere in the world.
Very odd.
And so it goes.
Name:
To paraphrase: we have met the enemy and it is us.
Kicked own goals: whether you hate him or love him K Rudd was ‘the man’ in the public’s eye.
I shudder to think what the results of your matchups would show.
Carr; parachuted.
Shorten; involved in the removal of Rudd.
And so it goes.
What is wrong with ‘parachuted’? Many heroes were.
What was wrong with removing Rudd? He was a useless, divisive cunt. And is.
Why punish a man who did the right thing?
Do you sincerely believe Abbott would beat either of them? By what margin?
Please answer this.
Bob, my point is that it’s not what important or less important, like me, Labor stalwarts know or believe about Krudd It’s how it is perceived by general voters.
He was the face of the 07 win.
A dumb move in my opinion to facilitate his removal as PM.
What other heroes?
At a state level at the last election we had a complete tosser parachuted in while the popular sitting member was still going strong, according to the public.
Now Bill Shorten I have respect for, especially his championing of the disability area, but tainted in the eye of the public due to the Krudd fiasco, whether true or not.
In my heart of Labor hearts if it was reduced to a one on one contest Abbott would be out for the count.
Pity it’s not the way it works.
Unless you can tell me how.
Oh dear, oh dear.
57-43. A far cry from the predicted result.
It’s almost shocking. Except for the fact that it isn’t.
The thing about ‘Abbott’s runner’ is many people would have understood the reasons behind it- The unwillingess to accept Thomson’s vote. It speaks to the integrity of the Liberals that they would subject themselves to such indignity in order to keep their word.
You just don’t get it do you.
Abbots role doesn’t include deciding who votes for what.
The Shadow Knows.
What tripe, the polling was done before the fucking runner.
And Thomson has not done anything remotely illegal or wrong so they are just cretins.
And asking if Thomson has been persecuted enough by Abbott is just plain disgusting.
Nothing surprising in that poll except this:
“Malcolm Turnbull is preferred as Coalition leader by 61 per cent of voters, compared with 34 per cent for Mr Abbott.”
The thought of Turnbull taking over the leadership of the Libs fills me with despair. He is like kryptonite. A festering cancerous cell that could destroy the party. Labors secret weapon. No real Liberal should touch him with a barge poll.
Frank, if you or I (and I dare say thousands who have) were a poll respondent, of course we’d say YES I DEFINITELY PREFER KEVVY – just for the misinformation yuks.
It works both ways too – ALP voters naturally prefer Turnbull because he cannot win an election.
Cognitive Dissonance. When reality collides with your delusions about how fabulously the ALP has governed since 2007. At least the election shouldn’t be too much of a shock for you by the time it rolls around.
Cheer up, Brian. I still have strong memories of September 18, 1992. And there still is a long road ahead before people vote. My opinion is Labor’s biggest dangers are – 1/panicking [which they don't seem to be doing]; and 2/what else do the dark forces have in their shit barrels. And this government is hurting them. Otherwise Gillard is growing into her PM public personna [doesn't hurt to be compared to Thatcher, the sheep like it that way]; the government is an achieving government; Abbot continues to scare people. I can’t see how Rudd can be an alternative. How do you sell a leader/brand that is hated by his own party! He would need the shortest honeymoon in history. Best is Gillard and Rudd get together, chums again, give Rudd Bowen’s job, tell him if the figures don’t improve just before the calling of the next election, then Julia will retire from politics having achieved everything she wanted to; and Kev steps in. But if Kev leaks just once, the formal contract is torn up. Otherwise this is a government for the most part to make you proud Is a government elected to work for the people, lead the nation, or be pre-occupied with being re-elected? If it’s the former then the polls show LABOR/GREENS/INDEPENDENTS 100; COALITION 0. And if the worst comes to the worst Camelots nevertheless have a way of reshaping history.
“My opinion is Labor’s biggest dangers are – 1/panicking [which they don't seem to be doing]; ”
Au contraire. Gillard is doing nothing but panic.
How else to explain her flailing over the EMA mess? Claiming to the unions that she knew nothing of the decision, hanging her ministers out to dry, backpedalling furiously when it was revealed she knew of it ages ago.
An awful panicky reaction in an attempt to placate as many people as possible and shore up support, only to end up annoying all of them.
Hopeless.
Seems to me she cleaned up the mess pretty quickly. Not someone panicking in my view.
The fact that there was a mess at all was because of her panicking.
A competent PM would have calmly explained her reasons for supporting the project to the unions, instead of flubbing about with an easilly disproved ‘I know nothing’ routine.
The Leadership ballot was panic, but Rudd should not have pulled the trigger. If he hadn’t he would already be PM. Dumb move.
A true backbench revolt has commenced but I’m not sure if Rudd can ride the wave on this one.
Sorry meant to post this in response to Banana’s & Franks comments below.
Rudd did not pull the trigger, he did not do anything at all.
So he didn’t resign as Foreign Minister? He did not engage Bruce Hawker?He did not faux campaign in Brisbane mall? Marilyn you are worrying. It is as if you get your news solely from the Green Left Weekly. You should look after yourself and your mind a bit more.
Shut up you rancid twit. He was told when he was overseas that Gillard was bringing on a vote.
Do keep up.
‘Rancid twit’ – you really do have a mouth on you don’t you Marilyn? From what I read in most nationally syndicated papers (ie not solely distributed in Balmain and the basket circle) it was Rudd who forced her hand. Are you are labor stooge? How do you know so much about the inner workings? Are you Craig Thom(p)son?
M: Rudd triggered it by announcing his resignation from New York.
When he heard he was about to be sacked.
What was the leadership ballot in February if not panic?
Also, Abbott was re-elected party leader unopposed after the narrow 2010 election defeat.
“Chums again” – thanks for the spilled coffee.
It was the February ballot the media just had to have. No ballot, Julia; no coverage at all. They did her a favour. Cathartic I thought. Smashed a few myths. The public can’t bitch about Rudd being stabbed in the back. Bananaman, tell me, if you had have been Gillard holding a minority govt together, what would have been your tactics to survive one term while getting the work done?
Gone back to the polls, explaining that a clear and certain outcome is what is needed for the sake of the country. Those who want to stay in the pub or TAB could do so without the threat of a fine. She would have got a clear majority based on guts and honesty. Instead, capitulation to the Greens for POWER (without principle). Too bad so sad.
Bananaman, don’t you remember how difficult it was for Gillard to stitch a government together. Going back to the polls. Who would have copped the blame for that, do you reckon? Suicide. Bananaman, I am not a Labor voter, haven’t been since Beazley and the Iraq War. Since that time I have had trouble differientating between Labor and Liberal. Same masters. Same conservatism. After all Rudd got in by promising to be just like Howard, except younger. But now is different. Labor has already passed major legislation. You can tell its effectiveness, both domestically and internationally, by the response from the Conservative forces. Babanaman, do you vote Liberal? In all seriousness help me understand the Liberal vote. What does the Liberal Party stand for? What do you think would be the Abbot policies that would drive this country forward? What did the Howard government achieve in its 11 years in office? What determines your vote? Do you research? Do you vote out of allegiance? Do you vote from a self point of view? A citizen of the State? A citizen of the world? Can your vote be bought? What is your moral standing on life? And, Banaman, if you are not a Liberal voter, could you still have a stab at the questions I am asking. I am forever trying to learn. Would like to gain from this site, your insight.
Cheers Frank, will get back to you tonight – I’m getting busy now.
My name is Bananaman and I am of sound mind and firm flesh. Julie Bishop is infinitely hotter than Bob Carr, who is clearly unfit for his post as FM due to his sad recitation of woeful Ellisisms (LOOK INTO MY EYES, LABOR IS GETTING WEAKER).
But seriously, Frank Willmott I want to help you understand why someone (like me) would vote Liberal.
I view the Liberal party as the lesser of many political evils.
Having been an employee (in a few different industries), employer (retail), union member willingly and unwillingly, company director, bankrupt, unemployed, self-employed, sole-trader, area manager, complaints manager, sales rep, sales trainer and all-around good guy I suppose my political interest is from an employment/industrial relations perspective.
I think the country should be run like a house. Secure, prosperous and financially rational. Most people have a lock on their front door, and try to spend less than they earn. Most people want to honestly earn their income, and maximise their income, and enjoy the fruits of their own effort.
The Liberals seem to be more honest (or marginally LESS dishonest), that if business does well, people will be employed and live productive prosperous lives. They are more on the side of personal freedom and responsibility.
Judge a person by their actions, not what they tell you. Especially if they are telling you what they want to hear.
In many respects the Liberals are weak, and frightened of being too blunt about situations (Turnbull is a good example) due to having to constantly deal with a (largely) dishonest and own-agenda-driven media and a very spoilt, fickle, and childish population – but that’s the hand they’re dealt.
Most Liberal MPs have achieved a career outside of politics (Turnbull again – definitely NOT chasing his parliamentary superannuation rainbows end) – too many of the ALP have just risen through the Union/ALP/Nepotism/Crony ranks since University Labor Club days.
The Unions are akin to Mafioso, and treat their peon members accordingly. They rule using intimidation, bullying and the threat of violence (and violence itself). Open books would help clean up the corruption, and secret ballots rather than the show of hands wouldn’t be too hard to implement. What do their members want? How many employers have given up after too many ridiculous union demands and said “see you later, we are relocating our manufacturing to China”?
If you have read Orwell’s 1984, consider which party is closest to the totalitarian government described therein… it’s like the ALP/Unions keep it handy as an instruction manual, rather than the warning about Socialism that it is.
Consider how many people are willing to die to escape Socialist countries… a lot of ALP members believe this is the way to run a society, and have done so since Uni and counter-culture indoctrination originally started by the KGB to destabilise and demoralise the free world.
Does Julia Gillard once a “part-time” typist of the Socialist Forum still believe in Socialist ideology? Has anybody asked her?
The Liberals believe in Medicare and Welfare (work for the dole helped halve unemployment), why pay someone to sit around and surf and smoke dope just because they feel “entitled” to do so? Someone has to pay.
The Liberals are more fiscally responsible than Labor, and like a household we need to live within our means. Bankruptcy and financial ruin ain’t fun – who wants a bankrupt country?
Bananman, thanks for the response. I am going to bed now to think about what you have said, to try and imagine you. I have had a very sheltered or focused life, known very few Liberal voters during that time, or those who wanted to tell me so. What does that say about them, or what does that say about me?
I’m not sure what it says about you or him, as I know neither of you. Not at all.
What this blog increasingly makes me think of is Manichaeism. Now, if that sounds wanky, and it does, what I mean is it makes me think about the temptation to see the world in terms of black and white, good and evil. And how that seems to lead to utter confusion. And a certain kind of unaccountable smugness.
Sorry Frank, this isn’t really a reply to you or bananaman. It’s late at night and I’ve been reading too many comments which involve people shrieking at each other, turning aside to piss briefly down the wall, then yammering some more.
it’s late. Sorry.
My name is Glinda and I am in possession of all six senses and refer previous Spleenblatt for auto-generated answer to policy question.
Bananaman is my new superhero.
So I awoke this morning, hands behind head, staring at the ceiling, and still pondering the given rare opportunity and access you gave into the psyche of this strange creature, the Liberal voter. And I realised that there wasn’t too much different between Frank Willmott and the Bananaman. Not ony do they both most likely enjoy breathing, eating, farting, bullshitting, but they are both perpetrators and victims at the same time of human nature. Since tribes moved on to more sophisticated forms of a social contract, and physcially strong and weak was replaced by a myriad of power plays, then we were doomed to be players in the divisive nature of human beings. Without going into them, I think “balance”; “yin and yang”; “natural selection”; master and slave; “unchangeable human nature until the use of genetic manipultation and bioengineering”; etc are some of the stems. If we weren’t at odds over Greens vs Liberals; then we would find some other point of dispute [identity] to help us come to terms with our socialisiation, our needs, to be recognised, liked, to have some point of power over someone else. But the the real silver bullet, that moment of deep spiritual insight I had, rising up before me in the morning light from a life spent in the pursuit of meaning, was this: at any given Australian election the total Coaltion vote should be divided by 3; the Labor vote stay as is; and the Green vote multiplied by 10. Discuss.
Well said Frank. If the voters have any sensible grasp of reality, Labor led by Gillard would be first in the polls and daylight second.
Perhaps reality will eventually catch up with our media and the miserable rag-tag of an opposition;
we live in hope.
I take back everything I said about this blog being dominated by pessimists.
I think that FW’s comment is wild fantasy but I must admit I like to see his faith and confidence in the kind of future he believes it.
Can you match that Bob?
Last Days of the Libs hey – like those interminably warning that the End Is Nigh. Everyone is out of step but me!
No, in both polls the move overall is to Labor, half a million in one and one hundred and twenty thousand in the other, and the move in hundreds of thousands in both away from Abbott.
It’s in the right direction, and there is time.
We will prevail.
The ALP primary vote is bleeding to the greens. Union members are beginning to understand that the Greens give more support to their policies than the ALP. Except of course ALP is pro-jobs while the Greens seem only pro-green jobs. Greens tending ALP voters have thrown their hands up and say we may as well support the greens as they really are anti-Gina/Clive/Twiggy not after them to boost popularity.
The future looks like being a choice between an ALP/GREEN coalition or LNP coalition.
The EMA shambles highlighted that Gillard will say anything (lie) to placate the Unions. Again highlighting her main problem lack of trust in the electorate.
While TA understands that he must begin to look above the fray, to look Prime Ministerial. The Prime Minister still doesn’t know how to appear prime ministerial and the constant press coverage of her yelling and sneering in Parliament at Pyne, Hockey etc does her no good.
Abbott’s facade was broken down by his sprint for the door, but usually his questions seem calm and leaves his poodles to do the attacking. Unfortunately the Prime Ministers chief attack dog Swan is loathed by the public and hence the responsibility falls to poor old Albo.
If Assange is extradited to the US expect the ALP to bleed even further to the Greens. Carr is on record saying there is no evidence for a US move to extradite Assange, yet the wikileaked Stratfor email is widely available showing the existence of such a desire.
As for the big bump in voter support from Carbon Tax compo it might be non-existent and a distant memory when the election comes round. I know of a single mother who was devastated after seeing her Carbon tax compensation letter from Jenny Macklin for less than a dollar per week. She is hardly rich, has to pay every increasing child care costs.
With an incoming broken promise on a budget surplus, the perfect storm for a Queensland style electoral wipeout is on the horizon.
Meanwhile, patiently and quietly the new grandfather, the man of the people waits for the call that is now imminent.
You mean the architect of the ALP’s destruction. The fRaUDD.
Nah uh, big fella. This was declared the ‘honest’ poll by your good self, just 5 days ago. It is what it is. You have long ago diagnosed the problem for the ALP – it is Julia Gillard, and it is the lingering stench from toppling Rudd. This is not the hand of Rinehart conspiring to confect a political outcome, although that does make for a good narrative. You can’t unburn this toast – scrape its blackened surface into the sink all you like, it is dry and hard and bitter, and the punters are ready to pop in a new slice of fluffy white bread, and hope it comes out golden.
Bob, the appointment of any alternative ALP leader other than Rudd would be seen as again ignoring the public and a return of “NSW disease”. Rudd is the only proposed ALP leader to that can repudiate the “NSW disease/Faceless men” story(Abbott has been talking up the faceless men stories again)
As Howse eluded to Rudd has to be brought back into the tent, perhaps to the front bench to replace one of the ministers that wouldn’t work with him again?
Though I do now wonder how a Shorten PM /Rudd Treasurer be perceived by the public? (not likely to be very appreciated by Rudd).
My name is Bananaman and I am of sound mind and I cannot name eight policies Labor should be thrown out for. I believe Julie Bishop would be a better Foreign Minister than Bob Carr.
The ALP have at least five credible (and reasonably likeable) stand-ins:
Smith, Crean, Ferguson, McLelland, Jenkins FFS
Any could clear the slate of the previous two disastrous PMs and go down fighting valiantly. Beats me why they couldn’t at this stage, but that’s self destruction for you. That is one competence the ALP can claim in it’s recent history.
They can still laugh behind closed doors about Abbott having to clean up the mess.
Crean and Smith are perhaps the only two who are likely and the only two could increase Abbott’s popularity and make him look more Prime Ministerial.
Carr in contrast would look prime ministerial though which ALP politician will give up a relatively safe seat for him to move to the house? Garrett would be the logical choice, but is he in a safe seat at the moment? Its a Newman like gamble but it could pay off.
The only surviving sign of Oakeshott after the election will be a metaphorical pair of smoking shoes, one found on Lighthouse Rd, the other located by chance somewhere around Wauchope. DNA testing concludes they were indeed worn by a nitwit.
Will Windsor run against Torbay? Probably would have retired if Torbay ran as an independent. He would have stayed to fight Barnaby Joyce?
ALP may win Dobell, but Thomson won’t be pre-selected.
Cheeseman may have handed his electorate to LNP after stuffing up letters to pensioners.
This constant trawling through the gizzards of new polls is exhausting. Can you imagine what would happen if parents had as their basic criteria ‘what will the kids approve of?’
Cowardice, blindness and a spoiled rotten constituency to which the only ALP answers seem to be more bribes, more wealth distribution, more sugary feminine desperate ‘love me’ tactics by the day.
My name is Bob Ellis’s Salad Dressing and I am of sound mind and I cannot name eight policies Labor should be thrown out for. I believe Julie Bishop would be a better Foreign Minister than Bob Carr.
Another SaladPoll (TM) prediction from the False Prophet. Bob, when will you realise these aren’t worth the toilet paper they are written on?
Nicely done, Bob.
With one bound he was free
I was wondering all weekend how you would do it.
But, Bob, it would do your reputation a lot of good if you would admit that your forecast of the Nielsen poll was just a bit wrong.
Yes I was. But sure enough, two days later, the economy surged and Abbott’s and Hockey’s negativity and malice looked crazy.
Labor is now on … 46?
And climbing.
“Why no polls comparing Carr and Abbott”
Easy. NSW would be gone in an instant and the ALP shell wouldnt want to concede a whole state in one go. I say the ALP is paying them money NOT to put Bob Carrs name forward in polls.
Bob, here’s a prediction for you you can stake your Palm Beach mansion on: my taxes will continue to subsidise Marilyn’s inane and racist ramblings and she will continue to devalue this blog.
Please do us all a favour and ban her for life and two thousand years – or until she finds a job. Whichever comes first.
Or surely until she admits she is Craig Thom(p)son.
She (or he) is a frightfully aggressive individual, and I do wonder why… Is she a failed public servant, politician (probably ALP or a watermelon) or perhaps she dabbled in the Unions and wasn’t very good at siphoning funds.
I am not a failed public servant or a watermelon or a member of any political party but I fail to see why that is up for discussion.
I don’t care who or what people are or if they vote for anyone in particular.
I just care if they are abusing the human rights of people for no good reason.
Hear, hear.
But what if there is good reason? Who is the judge of these good reasons? Sounds very marxist to me Marilyn. And all those things are relevant because it gives an insight into your psyche, your sick make-up (I’m joking I don’t know what you look like in make-up, although I can imagine and perhaps only after a few cases of Mateus).
You continue to dodge the question of whether you are Craig Thom(p)son. It makes perfect sense really. You are close to Herr Ellis, and he defends Craig vigourously. As do you. Prove that I lie.
I am not Craig Thomson, I don’t wear make up let alone sick make up and what is your point?
I am certainly glad to know Craig Thom(p)son does not wear make up. It would have been another blow to his credibility.
Eight million years.
Two million years.
Polls may come and polls may go; the only one that matters will be held in late 2013, more likely than not.
Abbott should be gone by the end of August. The problem that most concerns him : who will pay his mortgage then?
Come on, folks, get serious. The polls – all of them – say that the L-NP lead by Abbott would win an election by a staggeringly large majority.
Until that changes there is no chance of him losing his position.
Tell us why the polls will change?
Watch and Learn.
It changed today with the economic figures.
Or am I wrong?
If there is any justice in the voters’ breast, Bob, Labor should be ahead by 20 points and not behind.
Will reality catch up? We live in hope.